Tracking Saturday snowfall; wintry temperatures for most of next week

We’re on the board for the ‘21-’22 snowfall season.

Now our first Alberta clipper of the season sails quickly southeast through Minnesota this weekend. The forecast models seem to be behaving with pretty good agreement on a low-pressure center tracking along Interstate 94 from Fargo, N.D., through the Twin Cities Saturday into early Sunday morning.

Here’s The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest (18Z) run.

Timing

Snowfall likely begins in the Red River valley during the midday hours Saturday and spreads quickly southeast. That would put the leading edge of the snow into the greater Twin Cities area somewhere between 4 and 7 p.m. Snow should gradually taper off from west to east in the early hours of Sunday morning.

Snowfall totals

For the most part, this looks like a run-of-the-mill, garden variety clipper. That would lay down a swath of 1 to 3 inches of snow across much of central Minnesota.

If the system is able to squeeze out more snow, a band of 2 to 5 inches will favor a zone from Fargo through Bemidji, the Brainerd Lakes area, possibly toward Lake Mille Lacs and Hinckley. Here’s the Friday afternoon snowfall forecast update.

The Twin Cities area appears likely to ride the southern end of the snow zone. That favors a range of 1 to 3 inches, with the highest totals most likely in the northeast Twin Cities.

The ground is still relatively warm, so some falling snow may melt on contact and reduce measurable snowfall slightly. But air temperatures will be in the 20s overnight, so most of the falling snow will stick.

Next week looks quieter. Highs will be mostly in the 30s. But a brief warmup Tuesday may melt most of the snow across at least southern Minnesota as highs push into the 50s.