Record warmth Friday, but still a chance for a white Christmas

Warm weather Friday will continue to melt snow around Minnesota, especially south. Two different systems will return snow over the weekend, bringing much of the state a chance for a white Christmas.

Friday’s warmth

Ahead of a strong warm front, Minnesota is starting Friday off exceptionally mild for late December.

Morning temperatures are predominantly in the 30s, with a few 40s southwest. This means the entire state is beginning the day above average highs, and much of southern Minnesota is already near-record temperatures.

Marshall has already tied its previous record high, with 45 reported at 4 a.m. Warm highs forecast in the 30s north and 40s south will put numerous other records highs in jeopardy.

The Twin Cities and Rochester, which are already at 39 and 37 as of 8 a.m., only have a few degrees to go to reach their respective current record highs of 46 and 41.

The cold front side of the same system will move west to east through Minnesota by late afternoon. The western edge of the state, where the front moves through first will see falling temperatures by the afternoon. Winds will also be gusty, especially west.

The front does clear out some of the clouds though, with much of the state seeing more sunshine in the afternoon.

Holiday weekend snow

Those mild temperatures Friday will continue to erode the snowpack in Minnesota, especially in southern Minnesota. Most lingering patches of snow in southern Minnesota are spotty and even the snow cover southwest is predominantly under 2 inches.

There is still a chance for much of southern Minnesota to see at least a little Christmas snow.

The colder air behind Friday’s front sets up a noticeably colder day Saturday, with highs ranging from the single-digits northwest to 20s south.
Then, a disturbance moving through on Saturday brings a light snow across much of the state during the day.

The meteorological definition of a “white Christmas” is generally considered at least an inch of snow on the ground. For most of southern Minnesota, where there is predominantly bare ground, Saturday’s snow will not be enough to meet that technical definition, but there will be periods of light snow during the day and many areas could see a dusting, adding a little winter charm to the holiday.

The one area expecting more snow on Saturday is west-central Minnesota, where cities such as Moorhead could see some totals over 4 inches.

An even more impressive looking storm is forecast to move across Minnesota Sunday into Monday. Although there is still some uncertainty with how much snow that system could bring, it looks like central Minnesota could see several inches of snow along with gusty winds.

Along the southern edge of the state, it might be mild enough for a mix of precipitation. Both the snowfall and the wintry mix have the potential to cause travel impacts. That storm also raises temperatures Sunday, then moves colder air across the state again Monday (many spots could see highs Monday just past midnight, then falling temperatures).

Here is that forecast for the Twin Cities:

This sets-up colder temperatures for Minnesota by the middle of next week, then much of the week will be below average as we head toward the start of January.

Have a lovely and safe holiday weekend!

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Monday through Friday morning.