Winter storm slows Friday travel; temps rebound after cool Saturday

Allow extra time to get to your destination through Friday evening. Snow will cause slippery roads and reduced visibilities across much of Minnesota and parts of west-central and southwestern Wisconsin.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 10 a.m. Friday to 11 p.m. Friday:

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows a similar precipitation pattern:

Notice that the Twin Cities metro area rides the eastern edge of the snow, so the northeastern part of the metro area will see lower snow totals than the southwestern half of the metro.

How much snow?

Parts of southwestern Minnesota could see 6 to 10 inches of snow by Friday evening, with lower totals to the east. The area shaded in red has the best odds of 6 or more inches of additional snow:

By Friday evening, it looks like Twin Cities metro area snow totals could range from 1 to 2 inches in eastern Anoka County and northern Washington County to 4 to 5 inches in Carver, Scott, Hennepin and western Dakota counties.

You can see a NWS plot of snow reports here. You can hover over any data point on the linked NWS snowfall map to see the location and time of the snow measurement.

Updated Minnesota road conditions can be found here. Wisconsin road conditions can be found here.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Warnings, watches and advisories

Winter storm warnings (shaded pink in the graphic below) continue into Friday evening across most of west-central, southwestern and south-central Minnesota and to the western edge of the Twin Cities metro area:

The southwestern half of the Twin Cities metro area is in a winter weather advisory until 9 p.m. this Friday, for 3 to 5 inches of snow:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 954 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA... .Snow, occasionally heavy at times, will spread southeast through the afternoon. Snowfall rates of an inch per hour are possible along the Minnesota River Valley, west of Mankato, and over the Buffalo Ridge. The snow will end from north to south late this afternoon through the evening hours. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through early Friday evening west of a line from Glenwood to Albert Lea. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect east of the warning area to the Mississippi River. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected in the warning area with 3 to 5 inches in the advisory area. Amounts will drop off quickly east of the Mississippi River. MNZ059-060-068>070-076>078-085-150000- /O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-220115T0300Z/ Wright-Hennepin-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Steele- Including the cities of Monticello, Minneapolis, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, and Owatonna 954 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...Until 9 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

Here are details of the winter storm warning in southwestern Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 325 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ039-040-056-141730- /O.CON.KFSD.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220115T0600Z/ Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock- Kingsbury-Brookings-Moody- 325 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of east central South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. This includes the tribal lands of the Flandreau Santee Sioux Tribal Nation. * WHEN...Until midnight CST tonight. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are also in effect until midnight Friday night for portions of northwestern Minnesota:

Winter weather advisories continue Friday and Friday night in portions of northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin, due to lake-enhanced snow totals:

Here are details:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 629 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 MNZ020-037-150030- /O.NEW.KDLH.WW.Y.0003.220114T1229Z-220115T1200Z/ Southern Lake-Carlton and South St. Louis- Including the cities of Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Duluth 629 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow with total accumulation of 1 to 7 inches. * WHERE...Southern Lake and Carlton and South St. Louis Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Fond du Lac Band. * WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest snow totals of 4 to 7 inches are expected from the Tribal Lands of the Fond du Lac Band in the Cloquet area, Twig, Fredenberg, to Duluth, Two Harbors, and Silver Bay. Areas farther inland will receive less snow. Isolated snow amounts of 7 to 10 inches are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

Thursday snow map

Northeastern Minnesota already has plenty of snow cover, but much of southwestern and south-central Minnesota had little or no snow cover on the Thursday report from the Minnesota State Climatology Office:

I imagine that many cross-country skiers, snowboarders and kids with sleds will be out this weekend enjoying the snow that’s falling today.

Temperature trends

Saturday highs will be mainly in the teens:

Saturday winds will be light in most areas, but gusts of 18-25 mph are expected in northwestern Minnesota Saturday afternoon:

Forecast wind gusts are in knots, with 20 knots equal to 23 mph.

Back to temperatures, Sunday highs are expected to reach the 30s in many areas, with 20s in northeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around 30 on Sunday, followed by upper 20s on Monday, which is Martin Luther King Day.

After highs in the lower 30s Tuesday, it turns much colder Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the single digits. We’ll have a chance of light snow Sunday and Tuesday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.