Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Plowable snow up north Saturday, 40 next week for Twin Cities?

Forecast models differ on duration of possible thaw next week

Snowfall forecast for northern Minnesota
Snowfall forecast for northern Minnesota.
NWS Duluth

It’s a tale of two forecasts for Minnesota Saturday.

It will be a snowy Saturday up north. A low-pressure system crosses central Minnesota Saturday. To the north of the low, snow will come down most of the day.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model is similar to most others and lays down a swath of snow across northern Minnesota for most of Saturday. The loop below runs between 6 a.m. Saturday and midnight Sunday.

NOAA GFS model Saturday
NOAA GFS model Saturday.
NOAA, via tropical tidbits

The heaviest snowfall will be closer to the Canadian border, where several inches of plowable snow will fall. Most forecast models crank out a 3- to 6-inch snowfall zone across the north.

Localized lake-enhanced snowfall could produce snowfall totals in excess of 6 inches along the North Shore ridges. A zone of 1 to 3 inches is more likely along a Fargo, N.D., to Brainerd to Hinckley zone.

NOAA GFS snowfall output
NOAA GFS snowfall output by Sunday.
NOAA, via pivotal weather

Winter weather advisories cover northern Minnesota Saturday.

Including the cities of International Falls, Ely, Bigfork, and Hibbing

232 PM CST Fri Feb 4 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...North Itasca, Central St. Louis, Koochiching and North St. Louis Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Bois Forte Band, Deer Creek, Lake Vermilion and, Nett Lake areas.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

Milder but windy south

South of Saturday’s low-pressure track, a stiff southerly wind will eventually blow in milder air late Saturday afternoon. Highs will reach the 30s in southwest Minnesota, with 20s into the Twin Cities.

Check out the 47-degree high forecast for Sioux Falls, S.D., Saturday afternoon. Locations like Luverne in extreme southwestern Minnesota could hit 40 degrees Saturday.

Forecast high temperatures Saturday
Forecast high temperatures Saturday.
NOAA

Thaw next week

The forecast models all agree that a thaw is likely by Tuesday across most of Minnesota. Highs around 40 degrees look increasingly likely as far north as the Twin Cities, with above freezing temperatures well north into northern Minnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
Forecast high temperatures Tuesday.
NOAA

But forecast models differ on the duration of the thaw next week. Most models suggest temperatures will be several degrees cooler by next Wednesday.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday.
NOAA

NOAA’s GFS model brings cooler air with highs back into the 20s by later next week. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model keeps high above freezing for the Twin Cities for most of next week.

Stay tuned.