Tracking sloppy weekend storm system
Mixed bag of rain, ice, and snow still on track.
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We’re still tracking a sloppy-looking weekend weather system for Minnesota.
Today’s forecast models are pretty close to the trends we saw yesterday, with a few minor changes. Here’s my latest read on our inbound weekend weather system.
The system
A deepening low-pressure storm is likely to track from Colorado Friday night, to between the Twin Cities and Rochester by late Saturday night. The system looks fairly warm for early March, and this should produce a mix of rain, ice, and snow across Minnesota starting late Friday night, with the main pulse arriving Saturday night.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model tracks the sloppy system into the Upper Midwest this weekend. The loop below runs from early Saturday to 6 a.m. Sunday.
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Rain, ice, and snow
If this storm track and temperature profile hold, it would mean a possible icy mix for the Twin Cities late Friday night, transitioning to mostly rain Saturday for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota.
Under this scenario, an icy mix would favor central Minnesota, with the heaviest snow potential from western Minnesota into northeastern Minnesota.
An inch of liquid?
This looks like a wet snowfall. The map above uses a 10:1 snow to water ratio. Early indications are this could be closer to a 6:1 ratio. That would trim snowfall totals from the map above, but deliver plenty of liquid to big parts of Minnesota.
NOAA’s GFS model cranks out an inch of liquid for much of Minnesota. It would be mostly rain in the Twin Cities.
Twin Cities: Bye-bye snow cover?
If we get an inch of rain in the Twin Cities, that would pretty much wipe out our snow cover from the Twin Cities southward. Forecast models are driving a warm nose into southern Minnesota with temperatures in the 40s Saturday from near the Twin Cities southward.
Check out the 70s in Iowa!
Bottom line? This will be a sloppy, wet system that could deliver an inch of moisture to much of Minnesota this weekend. It looks like a heavy, wet cement type of snow will fall up north.
Stay tuned to see if we see shifts in storm track that could change the likely location of the heavier snow zone.
