Winter storm warning begins on Monday, continues Tuesday; Heavy snow and ice for some areas

A juicy winter storm will deliver snow, rain and freezing rain to the upper Midwest Monday into Tuesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Monday morning into Tuesday evening:

The heaviest snow will be Monday afternoon and evening through Tuesday. South-central and southeastern Minnesota, plus portions of western Wisconsin, may see several hours of freezing rain before the changeover to a wintry mix and then all snow.

Some computer models are showing about one inch of precipitation in many areas Monday through Tuesday night. That would include rainfall plus the water content of the snow. That would be more than our average precipitation total for the entire month of January.

Potential snow totals

The heaviest snow totals are expected to be in southwestern Minnesota, where many areas will receive double-digit totals over the two days. Snow totals of 6 inches or more are expected into central Minnesota, the northern part of the metro area, plus northwestern Wisconsin:

The highest chance of icy accumulations from freezing rain will be in southern Minnesota and portions of southwestern Wisconsin:

Warnings and advisories

Winter storm warnings, with various Monday start times, have been posted for much of central and southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area:

Here are details of the winter storm warning that includes the Twin Cities metro area and begins at 3 p.m. on Monday and continues through Tuesday afternoon:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 310 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 MNZ049>053-059>063-020600- /O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0007.230103T0300Z-230104T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0001.230102T2100Z-230104T0000Z/ Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka- Ramsey-Washington- Including the cities of St Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, and Stillwater 310 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a few hundredths of an inch of ice. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central and east central Minnesota. * WHEN...From 3 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

Here are details of the winter storm warning that starts at 6 a.m. Monday in southwestern Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 210 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 MNZ071-072-097-SDZ038>040-050-052>061-063-064-020415- /O.UPG.KFSD.WS.A.0005.230102T1200Z-230104T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KFSD.WS.W.0001.230102T1200Z-230104T0000Z/ Lincoln-Lyon-Pipestone-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld- Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook- Charles Mix-Douglas- 210 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 18 inches. Ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southwest Minnesota and central, east central, south central and southeast South Dakota. * WHEN...From 6 AM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Falling and blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are possible Monday night into Tuesday morning. Blizzard or near-blizzard conditions may develop. Small fluctuations in storm track are still possible, which could impact the forecast precipitation type and amounts.

Here are details of the ice storm warning that starts at noon Monday and continues through Tuesday afternoon in south-central Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 310 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 MNZ083-091-092-020600- /O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0007.230102T2100Z-230104T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMPX.IS.W.0001.230102T1800Z-230104T0000Z/ Blue Earth-Martin-Faribault- Including the cities of Mankato, Fairmont, and Blue Earth 310 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Significant expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of around one quarter inch of ice. * WHERE...Blue Earth, Martin and Faribault Counties. * WHEN...From noon Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Heavy icing may result in downed tree branches and power lines. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

A winter weather advisory begins at 6 p.m. Monday from Red Wing to Eau Claire. Here are the details for Goodhue County:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 310 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 MNZ078-020600- /O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0007.230102T2100Z-230104T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0001.230103T0000Z-230104T0000Z/ Goodhue- Including the city of Red Wing 310 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of one to two tenths of an inch of ice. * WHERE...Goodhue County. * WHEN...From 6 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.:

A winter storm watch starts at 6 p.m. Monday in far southeastern Minnesota, here are the details:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service La Crosse WI 250 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 IAZ009-MNZ079-087-088-095-096-020500- /O.CON.KARX.WS.A.0004.230103T0000Z-230104T0000Z/ Howard-Wabasha-Olmsted-Winona-Fillmore-Houston- Including the cities of Cresco, Wabasha, Rochester, Winona, Preston, and Caledonia 250 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of up to 3 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to three tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...From Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There remains the potential for this storm to shift north or south. Travelers are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and statements concerning this potentially hazardous travel situation.

A winter storm watch begins late Monday night from Brainerd to Duluth into NW Wisconsin:

The storm track and/or temperature profile within the storm could change, which would change the coverage area of the heavy snow and the freezing rain.

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog.

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