Heavy snow starts in SW Minnesota; 3-7 inches expected in storm's first wave

Here we go.

Our well-advertised snowstorm is increasing in coverage across Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. Moderate to heavy snow is already falling across southwestern Minnesota. Snow coverage will increase across the Twin Cities into the evening hours.

Wave No. 1

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model shows the likely progression of the snow zone across mainly central and southern Minnesota with the initial storm wave through Wednesday morning.

The loop below runs between 3 p.m. Tuesday and 6 a.m. Wednesday:

This snow wave will likely produce between 3 and 7 inches by Wednesday morning in most areas.

Expect slippery roads from the afternoon rush hours Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Many locations may see a lull, or even a brief break in snowfall Wednesday morning before the second, bigger snow wave arrives.

Wave No. 2

The second, and bigger snowfall wave cranks up across Minnesota Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. This main body of the storm will dump heavier snowfall across much of Minnesota.

Widespread moderate snow will feature embedded heavy snow bursts. These convective cells may produce thunder snow, with snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour at times.

NOAA’s NAM 3 km model picks up on the darker blue blotches that will bring heavy snow pockets to Minnesota. The loop below runs between 9 a.m. Wednesday and noon Thursday.

Blizzard warnings

High winds will whip this snow into the air, especially Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Snow drifts could be several feet deep in some areas. Blizzard warnings are up for most of southwestern Minnesota to just west of the Twin Cities.

Including the cities of Morris, Glenwood, St Cloud, Madison, Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, Litchfield, Granite Falls, Olivia, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, and St James

327 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY...

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. For the Blizzard Warning, blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 11 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west central Minnesota.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from noon today to 3 PM CST Wednesday. For the Blizzard Warning, from 3 PM Wednesday to noon CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible as widespread blowing snow leads to whiteout conditions. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant drifting will occur due to the heavy snow totals and strong winds. Drifts may be several feet deep.

Snowfall totals

It’s remarkable how consistent forecast models have been with this storm. I’ve noticed a very slight pullback in overall snowfall totals, but most are still cranking out a range of 14 to 20-plus inches across our region.

Here’s the latest available National Weather Service snowfall forecast:

Here’s a wider look at Minnesota. Note there will also be significant snow across central parts of Minnesota, with less snow north.

Snowfall records?

This still looks like it could very well land as a top 15 snow event for the Twin Cities. If we get 20 inches, that would put us in the top three slots. I still think a top 15 finish is likely. We’ll see if we get to the top three spots.

Stay safe and stay tuned.