Rain and snow arrive Sunday afternoon; precipitation continues into Monday

We enjoyed gorgeous March weather Saturday afternoon, as skies brightened. We’re expecting some big changes in our weather by Sunday afternoon and evening.

The big picture

A low-pressure system is expected to spread snow and rain into Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. The precipitation will continue overnight Sunday night and into Monday in many areas.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 11 a.m. Sunday to 6 p.m. Monday:

It’ll probably be a mix of rain and snow in the Twin Cities metro area and southern Minnesota, with mainly rain to the north. Metro area precipitation may begin around mid-afternoon on Sunday.

By Monday, the steadiest precipitation will be in the northern half of Minnesota and into Wisconsin, with spotty snow or a mix in the metro area and west-central Wisconsin.

Snow amounts

The potential for 4 inches or more of snow Sunday afternoon through Monday is highest to the north:

Here are forecast snow amounts for Sunday and Monday combined:

The Twin Cities metro area may see a rain-snow mix late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night and Monday morning, along with some periods of mainly snow. Snow accumulations will depend on how long we have mainly snow and how long it is a rain-snow mix or mainly rain. We could also hear some thunder at times.

Here are forecast snow amounts in northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin through Monday:

Winter storm watch

A winter storm watch covers portions of central and northern Minnesota from 6 p.m. Sunday into Monday:

The winter storm watch begins earlier in parts of far west-central Minnesota.

Here are details of the watch:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1119 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2023 MNZ041>045-050130- /O.EXT.KMPX.WS.A.0005.230306T0000Z-230306T2100Z/ Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec- Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, Princeton, and Mora 1119 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Wet and heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. * WHERE...Douglas, Todd, Morrison, Mille Lacs and Kanabec Counties. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Slippery road conditions and reduced visibility from snow and blowing snow could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The track of this system is still uncertain so please stay tuned to the forecast, especially if you have travel plans. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

Here are watch details from Pine County, Minnesota eastward into Wisconsin:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 213 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2023 MNZ038-WIZ006>009-050815- /O.CON.KDLH.WS.A.0003.230306T0000Z-230307T0000Z/ Pine-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price- Including the cities of Pine City, Hinckley, Grantsburg, Spooner, Hayward, and Phillips 213 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. * WHERE...In Minnesota, Pine County. In Wisconsin, Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer and Price Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Lac Courte Oreilles Reservation and the Mille Lacs Band, Hinckley and, Lena Lake areas. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

A winter storm watch also includes portions of northeastern Minnesota, beginning Sunday evening:

Here are details of the watch that includes the Duluth area:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 213 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2023 MNZ020-037-WIZ001>004-050815- /O.CON.KDLH.WS.A.0003.230306T0000Z-230307T0000Z/ Southern Lake-Carlton and South St. Louis-Douglas-Bayfield- Ashland-Iron- Including the cities of Two Harbors, Silver Bay, Duluth, Superior, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland, and Hurley 213 PM CST Sat Mar 4 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...In Minnesota, Southern Lake and Carlton and South St. Louis Counties. In Wisconsin, Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland and Iron Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Fond du Lac Band, the Bad River Reservation, the Red Cliff Band and the northwestern area of the Lac du Flambeau Band. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

There is also a winter storm watch in portions of northwestern Minnesota and eastern North Dakota, and a winter storm warning begins Sunday in parts of North Dakota:

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

The average Twin Cities high temp is 36 degrees on March 5. Metro area highs will be very close to that mark on Sunday.

Most of Minnesota will have Sunday highs in the 30s:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 30s on Tuesday, followed by mid 30s Wednesday and Thursday then lower 30s on Friday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.