Forecast models remain split on storm potential for Thursday

It’s a beautiful March Tuesday afternoon as I type this post today.

NOAA’s Geocolor image of the Upper Midwest above shows bright sunshine and extensive snow cover across our region. You can clearly see the outline of rivers in the snowpack. And note the still mostly frozen large lakes like Mille Lacs, Red and Leech across north-central Minnesota. Note the mostly open waters of Lake Superior.

Temperatures today are mostly in the 20s and 30s across Minnesota. Tomorrow brings a sunny start, with clouds increasing during the day. Highs Wednesday will reach the 40s across eastern Minnesota with mostly 30s north and west.

Uncertain forecast Thursday and Friday

Meteorologists look for forecast models consensus with an approaching storm. Unfortunately, the models have been all over the place with our potential storm Thursday and Friday.

The solutions over the past two days have ranged from heavy snow to little snow with a rainy mix for parts of Minnesota.

So, here’s where the forecast models stand as of Tuesday afternoon.

Solution #1: Split storm system

Some forecast models suggest a split storm with two separate low-pressure zones. NOAA’s NAM model is one of those that suggest a low-pressure system across northern Minnesota, with a second wave filling in snow across southern and eastern Minnesota later Thursday into Friday as the systems merge. The loop below runs between 6 p.m. Wednesday and 6 p.m. Friday.

Solution #2: Storm comes together over Minnesota

A few forecast models suggest a more southerly storm track will come together as it passes south of Minnesota. This solution would likely produce wider snowfall coverage, with the potential for a narrow band of heavier snowfall. NOAA’s GFS model is among those that bring a rain-to-snow scenario into the Twin Cities Thursday into Friday. The loop below runs between 6 a.m. Thursday and 6 p.m. Friday.

Potential snowfall totals

The Canadian, European and American GFS models are among those that lay out a potentially heavy band of snow from southwest Minnesota through the Twin Cities Thursday night into Friday.

Here’s the European snowfall output at a 10 to 1 snow-to-rain ratio, which seems quite possible for this system. Note the possible narrow 30-mile wide band of heavier snowfall near the Twin Cities! Not the highest confidence solution 48 hours out.

Here’s NOAA’s NAM model, which lays out a completely different solution. See the heavier snow bands north and south of the Twin Cities with little snow in between?

Local NWS offices will likely issue winter storm watches today based on the possibility of heavy snow Thursday into Friday. But the eventual warning zones are still up in the air and will likely be issued later Wednesday.

We’re still 48 hours from the bulk of this system so hopefully, there’s more forecast model consensus ahead.

Stay tuned.