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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Mixed sun with scattered thunderstorms into Saturday

June weather on Thursday; occasional rain, thunder likely

Anatomy of a thunderstorm
Thunderstorms.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Thunderstorm season has arrived in Minnesota.

The colder seasons in Minnesota typically bring what meteorologists call stratiform precipitation. It covers wide areas and is usually more uniform in intensity that summer rains.

Cold season stratiform precipitation may take many forms depending on temperatures in the lowest mile of the atmosphere.

precip types
A 3D view of how different air masses create different precipitation types on the edge of warm and cold air in a wintry system
National Weather Service

But summer precipitation is usually convective, not stratiform. That means more localized cloud towers that build vertically in the sky.

Stronger to severe summer thunderstorms may reach 60,000 feet above ground level. They dump locally heavy bursts of rain and hail over smaller areas.

Anatomy of a thunderstorm 2
Anatomy of a thunderstorm
NOAA

Occasional scattered storms ahead

It looks like Minnesota may get another dose of localized convective rain and thunder overnight into Thursday morning.

Several short-range mesoscale models develop scattered storm clusters in southwestern Minnesota Wednesday evening and track them toward central Minnesota and the greater Twin Cities area after midnight Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s FV3 model loop below runs between 10 p.m. Wednesday and 10 a.m. Thursday.

NOAA FV3 model
FV3 model between 10 p.m. Wednesday and 10 a.m. Thursday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

The most likely period for storms in the Twin Cities appears to favor the hours between about 2 a.m. and 8 a.m. Thursday. Severe weather looks unlikely but locally heavy rainfall is possible with stronger cells.

NOAA NAM precip
North American Mesoscale precipitation output through 7 p.m. Thursday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Scattered storms into the weekend

Again, we’ll likely enjoy many more dry hours than rain between now and Saturday. Saturday looks like the wettest day with more numerous showers and thunderstorms across the southern half of Minnesota.

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model loop below runs between 1 p.m. Thursday and 7 p.m Saturday.

NOAA GFS model 2
Global Forecast System model forecast loop between 1 p.m. Thursday and 7 p.m. Saturday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Highs will be in the 70s to near 80 degrees again in Minnesota Thursday.

Forecast high temperatures Thursday
Forecast high temperatures Thursday
NOAA

Right now Mother’s Day looks like the coolest day with highs in the 60s and rain chances favoring the morning and midday hours.