Frost in parts of northern Minnesota early Saturday, then a nice weekend
Summery temps next week
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It’s nice to talk about a bright and dry weekend. It’ll be chilly Saturday morning, then temps recover nicely.
Northwesterly breezes will lighten up Friday night and the skies will clear. That will allow temps to drop into the 30s late Friday night/early Saturday across much of northern and central Minnesota and northern Wisconsin plus parts of west-central Wisconsin.
A frost advisory runs from 1 a.m. to 7 a.m. Saturday from Pine County Minnesota north to St. Louis County and then eastward through most of northeastern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin:
Here are details of the frost advisory:
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 320 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 MNZ011-012-019-037-038-WIZ001>004-006>009-200830- /O.NEW.KDLH.FR.Y.0002.230520T0600Z-230520T1200Z/ North St. Louis-Northern Cook and Lake-Central St. Louis- Carlton and South St. Louis-Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron- Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price- Including the cities of Ely, Isabella, Hibbing, Duluth, Pine City, Hinckley, Superior, Washburn, Bayfield, Ashland, Hurley, Grantsburg, Spooner, Hayward, and Phillips 320 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SATURDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In Minnesota, North St. Louis, Northern Cook and Lake, Central St. Louis, Carlton and South St. Louis and Pine Counties. In Wisconsin, Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, Iron, Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer and Price Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the northwestern area of the Lac du Flambeau Band, the Bad River Reservation, the Red Cliff Band, the Fond du Lac Band, the Lac Courte Oreilles Reservation, the Mille Lacs Band, Hinckley and, Lena Lake areas and the Bois Forte Band, Nett Lake and, Lake Vermilion areas. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas near Lake Superior are likely not to develop any frost formation. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.
Portions of northern and central Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin that aren’t in the frost advisory will have Saturday morning lows in the the mid to upper 30s, and could see some patchy frost. When winds are light, temps near the ground can be several degrees cooler than the official temps which are measured five feet above the ground.
Twin Cities metro area lows are expected to be mainly in the lower 40s Saturday morning. A few low spots in the north metro could see upper 30s.
You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network.
Dry weekend
Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have a dry weekend, thanks to a nearby high-pressure system.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from 4 a.m. Saturday to 6 p.m. Sunday:
The NAM model indicates the potential for an isolated shower late Sunday afternoon in northeastern Minnesota.
Weekend temps
The average Twin Cities high temperature on May 20 is 71 degrees. Metro area highs are expected to reach the lower 70s this Saturday.
Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have Saturday afternoon highs in the 70s:
There will be a few upper 60s in far northeastern Minnesota, near Grand Marais.
Sunday highs will be well into the 70s in most locations:
Highs in the 60s are expected near Lake Superior, as gusty east-northeasterly winds develop Sunday afternoon.
River update
Several rivers are reaching a second spring crest, thanks to the heavy rain that fell over portions of southern Minnesota six to nine days ago.
You can check the river levels at various locations in Minnesota and western Wisconsin here. This is how the linked map looked Friday afternoon:
You can zoom in on the linked map page and get detailed info on river levels at a specific location.
River levels are measured in relation to the height above a local benchmark. In some locations, river levels are listed in feet above sea level.
Here’s the hydrograph of recent, current and forecast levels for the Minnesota River at Jordan, which is at moderate flood stage:
The Minnesota River at Jordan will begin to fall Saturday afternoon and then continue to fall through the coming week.
The Mississippi River at St. Paul is at minor flood stage and it’s forecast to crest slightly below moderate flood stage this weekend, then fall through the coming week:
You can find updated flood warning information at the following National Weather Service sites: Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Wis., Sioux Falls, S.D., Grand Forks, N.D.
Almost summery this coming week
Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach about 80 degrees on Monday, followed by lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, then back around 80 for Thursday and Friday.
Weather nugget
The Twin Cities record high for May 19 is 97 degrees, set in 2009. The Twin Cities high temp the next day was 94 degrees.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.