Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Shower, thunderstorm chance into Saturday night; scattered showers Sunday

Updated severe weather outlook

Updated 12:30 p.m.

Much of Minnesota was either unusually dry or in drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor report that was released on Thursday:

drought
The latest drought monitor
National Drought Mitigation Center

A few areas have received rain since that time but many locations would appreciate some meaningful rain this weekend.

Rain and thunderstorm chances

Portions of southwestern Minnesota had several hours of rain with embedded thunderstorms Saturday morning. There were also patches of morning rain elsewhere in Minnesota.

Dew points are adequate to provide plenty of fuel for additional showers and thunderstorms in Minnesota and western Wisconsin this afternoon and evening, as a low-pressure system moves slowly eastward from South Dakota.

Severe weather outlook

There is the potential for some severe weather in Minnesota and western Wisconsin Saturday afternoon and evening. The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center shows a slight risk of severe weather (shaded yellow) in portions of southern Minnesota, with a marginal severe weather risk (darker green) in a broad section of Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin:

rt0624svr
Severe weather outlook Saturday/Saturday night
NWS Storm Prediction Center, Twin Cites NWS office

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, with an isolated severe thunderstorm possible in the marginal risk area.

Here are the severe weather categories that are used by the Storm Prediction Center:

rt0328risk
Severe weather risk categories
NWS Storm Prediction Center

The severe weather potential in the Twin Cities metro area appears to be mainly late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening.

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Midday update

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has added a portion of northern Minnesota to the slight risk category for Saturday afternoon into Saturday night:

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Severe weather outlook Saturday afternoon through Saturday night
NWS Storm Prediction Center, NWS Grand Forks, N.D., office

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You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. You can find the latest radar here.

You can also check these National Weather Service sites for updated weather info: Twin CitiesDuluthLa Crosse, Wis., Sioux Falls, S.D., Grand Forks, N.D.

Sunday rain chances

The low pressure system moves off to the east on Sunday, but wrap-around moisture will keep the chance of occasional showers in our forecast.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern from 4 a.m. Sunday to 10 p.m. Sunday:

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NAM simulated radar from 4 a.m. Sunday to 10 p.m. Sunday
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh models shows a similar rain pattern for Sunday:

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HRRR simulated radar from 4 a.m. Sunday to 10 p.m. Sunday
NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

Monday looks mainly dry, with just an isolated shower chance.

Saturday highs will range from 60s in parts of far northern Minnesota to 80s in much of central and southern Minnesota. Some spots of western Wisconsin could touch 90.

Sunday highs will be in the 70s in far northwestern Minnesota plus much of the southern half of Minnesota and portions of western Wisconsin, with mainly 60s elsewhere:

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Sunday forecast highs
National Weather Service

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around 80 degrees on Monday, followed by lower 80s Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday and around 80 on Friday.

We could start July with a stretch of warmer than normal weather. Here’s the NWS Climate Prediction Center’s temperature outlook for July 1 through July 7:

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Temperature outlook July 1 through July 7
NWS Climate Prediction Center

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.

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