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Updraft®
Paul Huttner

Weekend soaking rainfall chances increasing; severe risk Saturday

Forecast models shifting heavier rainfall toward the Twin Cities area

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
Precipitation output forecast through Monday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

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There’s good news in the overnight and midday Friday forecast model runs for those who want more rain. Our inbound weekend storm system is shifting to the east.

That means chances have increased for significant rainfall in the worst of the drought zone. That includes the Twin Cities area.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model paints the overall picture. Watch on the map below as bands of rain spin around the inbound low-pressure storm this weekend.

NOAA GFS model weekend
Global Forecast System model between 7 p.m. Friday and 7 a.m. Sunday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Tropical Tidbits

Slight severe risk

Saturday’s inbound weather system packs enough moisture and energy to produce a few strong to severe storm cells.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center paints a slight risk for severe storms in southwestern Minnesota, with a marginal risk extending eastward into the greater Twin Cities area.

Severe weather risk areas
Severe weather risk areas Saturday
NOAA, via Iowa Emergency Management

NOAA’s FV3 model paints spotty cells around early Saturday afternoon. Then a cluster of stronger cells looks likely to develop along the advancing frontal boundary Saturday afternoon in southwestern Minnesota and move eastward toward the Twin Cities by Saturday evening.

Forecast models suggest storms that could be severe in southwestern Minnesota Saturday afternoon but will likely fade some in intensity as they approach the Twin Cities.

The forecast model loop below runs between 1 p.m. and 10 p.m. on Saturday.

NOAA FV3 model
FV3 model between 1 p.m. and 10 p.m. Saturday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Rainfall totals

Compared to Thursday’s forecasts, the overnight and Friday midday forecast model runs show encouraging trends for higher rainfall totals in the Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota.

Several models now crank out multi-inch rainfall this weekend in or near the greater Twin Cities area.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model cranks out multi-inch rainfall potential in eastern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities area, through Monday.

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
Precipitation output forecast through Monday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

Here’s NOAA’s Global Forecast System model:

NOAA GFS precipitation output
GFS precipitation output forecast through Monday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

And the Canadian model is also aggressive with more than 2-inch rainfall potential around the Twin Cities.

Canadian model precipitation output
Canadian model precipitation output forecast through Monday
Environment Canada, via Pivotal Weather

Friday’s forecast model runs are looking much better for a good soaking rainfall for most of Minnesota including the greater Twin Cities area this weekend. Hopefully lawns, fields, ponds, and trees will get beneficial rainfall this weekend.

Stay tuned.