Climate change impact on our record temperatures. Rain and snow for Sunday into Tuesday

Much of Minnesota has morning fog Friday with areas of drizzle and a few scattered light showers. Record warmth will develop this weekend with rain and snow Sunday into Tuesday.

Fog and drizzle with a few showers Friday 

Dense fog persists across central and western Minnesota Friday morning. A dense fog advisory is posted through midday. 

While visibility will improve some Friday afternoon, fog and drizzle will likely remain for many areas in some form through the day Friday and fill back in Friday night. Visibility should improve more by midday Saturday. We’ll also see some scattered light rain showers Friday. 

It will still be very mild with highs in the 40s south to 30s north Friday afternoon.

What’s to blame for the record warm December? 

We’re likely going to break several records over the weekend: one record high Sunday and potentially three overnight warm record lows in the Twin Cities. Below are forecast highs and lows along with the record warm lows and record warm highs. I’ve circled the likely ones that will be broken. 

We’ve heard a lot about El Niño and it’s strong correlation to mild winters in Minnesota, which is certainly true. In fact, this winter is shaping up to be one of four “Super El Niños” along with 2015-16, 1997-98 and 1982-83. Each of those years saw significant spikes in December average winter temperatures. But note, each one of those years has become even warmer than the previous as overall background December temperatures have warmed about five degrees in 40 years thanks to man-made climate change. 

Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index (CSI) measures the statistical contribution of climate change on high and low temperatures. It gives us a CSI of 5 much of this weekend which means those readings are made five times more likely due to climate change.

So, El Niño combined with climate change work to spike the ball, if you will on temperatures in Minnesota winters. 

Rain turns to snow Sunday into Tuesday and Wednesday

All that warm air is contributing to what will likely be a significant rainfall event Christmas Eve into Christmas Day. The rain will start to turn to snow late Sunday in northwest Minnesota. The amount of cold air and timing will have a big impact on how much snow falls and where. The latest models are now hinting at snow even in southern Minnesota developing at some point Monday or Tuesday.

A significant amount of precipitation is expected, over an inch in southern Minnesota over the course of Sunday into early Wednesday.

The question is how much snow can fall? The forecast models are all over the map and we will need to monitor them carefully over the next couple of days. Here’s a view of the range of possibilities as of Friday morning: 

Above normal temperatures persist regardless into the New Year. It does look as though temperatures will at least be cooler however late next week.