Where's winter? El Niño and climate change delivering a record warm 1-2 punch
Warmest winter on record so far continues through next week
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Where’s winter?
That’s what I’m hearing on my feeds this week. I’ve written here and chatted on MPR News all week about how we’re on pace for the warmest winter on record for the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota.
As of this Friday, Jan. 26, the Twin Cities, International Falls, and Fargo-Moorhead are all having the warmest winter on record to date.
So, what’s causing this winter’s extreme winter warmth?
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Reason No. 1: Climate change
The strongest climate change signal in Minnesota is warmer winters. Analysis of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data shows that winters in Minnesota have warmed an average of 5 to 6 degrees since 1970. That is a huge amount as climate records go.
It’s also clearly visible to anyone who’s paying attention. Our lakes fight to keep stable ice cover. Our landscape struggles to keep consistent snow cover. We still get the occasion colder and snowier winters like last year, but they’re becoming less frequent.
And the coldest temperatures recorded during our winters have risen by 12 degrees on average since 1970! And minus 20 degrees in winter occurs much less frequently in the Twin Cities now.
Reason No. 2: The Super El Niño of 2023-24
This winter’s El Niño event has reached what many of us meteorologists call the “Super El Niño” level. That means tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at or above 2 degrees Celsius.
Stronger El Niño’s have a high correlation with milder-than-average winters in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.
And this winter has been textbook. Persistent waves of mild Pacific air have blown into Minnesota this winter. The warmest winter on record is 1887-88 which was also an El Niño winter.
Warmest days ahead
We hit 41 degrees at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport on Friday. That’s the warmest day so far in 2024, and 17 degrees warmer than the normal high of 24 degrees.
We may see some sunny breaks across parts of Minnesota this weekend.
The warmest air arrives later next week. Temperatures will into the 40s are likely.
Record highs next weekend in Twin Cities are between 48 and 51 degrees.
It looks like our early February heat wave may last through at least the first week of the month.
Stay tuned.