50s to near 60 degrees will lock in the warmest winter on record for Minnesota

We’re in the home stretch for the warmest winter on record for Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.

The Midwest Regional Climate Center’s Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) shows the record lowest index for the Twin Cities and most of Minnesota.

The latest AWSSI for the Twin Cities is 330. That’s way below the average of around 930 and even further behind last winter’s number of 1039. The index assigns points for cold and snow during the winter season.

This winter ranks as the warmest on record for most of Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.

Another warm wave ahead

Yet another wave of mild Pacific air is blowing into Minnesota this week. Highs well into the 40s will persist through much of this week.

We cool down a bit later this week.

But another wave of even warmer air is likely by early next week. Forecast models are cranking out highs well into the 50s across southern Minnesota early next week. A few models have put out temperatures around 60 degrees across southern Minnesota early next week.

Seventy degrees in Des Moines, Iowa, next week?

Given current and forecast trends there’s no doubt we’ll seal the deal for the warmest winter on record for Minnesota when meteorological winter ends on Feb. 29.

Climate change and El Niño

It’s clear this record-warm winter has 2 major causes.

Climate change has warmed our Minnesota winters more than 5 degrees on average since 1970. Even last year’s winter, which produced 90 inches of snow, was slightly milder than average overall.

And the current Super El Niño I wrote about in October has brought waves of mild Pacific air to boost our winter temperatures even higher.

Next winter looks likely to switch to a La Niña phase in the tropical Pacific, so we’ll still have the background Muzak for climate change favoring milder winters. But the jet stream patterns should favor a colder winter than what we experienced this year.

Stay tuned.