Final numbers show warmest winter on record for most of Minnesota

Climate change and this winter’s super El Niño combined to produce the warmest meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) on record in Minnesota.

Data shows climate change has warmed Minnesota’s winters about 5 to 6 degrees overall since 1970.

This winter we superimposed one of the strongest super El Niño events on top of that long-term warming trend. That added even more warmth as is statistically likely in El Niño winters in Minnesota.

The numbers

Temperatures this winter in Minnesota came in about 2 degrees warmer than the previous record for the December-through-February period.

Temperatures in the Twin Cities ran about 10 degrees warmer than normal this winter. That beats the previous warmest winter on record of 1877-78 by a full degree. Temperature records in the Twin Cities date back to 1871.

Most other locations in Minnesota and the Upper Midwest had the warmest winter on record, including International Falls, St, Cloud and Rochester. International Falls was an astounding 12.3 degrees warmer than normal this winter!

My MPR News colleague Mark Seeley elaborates on the warmest winter on record in his weekly Weather Talk blog.

Wrapping up meteorological winter (Dec-Feb):

With the very warm February to go along with the warmest December in state history, as well as a warmer than normal January, the meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) will go down as the warmest in state history without question, surpassing the old record set in the winter of 1997-1998 by roughly 2.0°F. MSP even surpassed the Pioneer Era record warm winter of 1877-1878.

Many communities reported a record number of days with temperatures of 50°F or higher during this winter, including MSP with 18 days. In addition, even northern Minnesota communities reported a record number of days with temperatures above the freezing mark (32°F), including International Falls which reported 40 such days this winter.

Winter moisture started with a record-setting wet month of December, wettest in history. Most of the precipitation came as rain. This was followed by a drier than normal January and February. Overall, most places in Minnesota have received above average precipitation since December 1st, but thanks entirely to the record-setting wetness of December.

The warm pattern so entrenched in the winter season is expected to persist throughout the spring season as well, according to most of the NOAA outlook models. Models give no clear indication of whether to expect a wetter or drier than normal spring season in Minnesota.

The Minnesota State Climatology Office expands on the remarkable nature of our warmest winter on record.

The winter season can be defined meteorologically (December through February), astronomically (December 21 to March 21), or based on when we actually experience winter-like conditions, meaning cold and snow. By that latter definition, a typical winter lasts from November into March or even April, but this year, we've had only a total of about two weeks of it, and some of that was around Halloween!

Instead, the winter has been dominated by warmth and snowlessness, with the December-through-February meteorological winter becoming the the warmest on record at almost all stations. Winter heatwaves in December, January, and February produced record high temperatures, record high minimum temperatures, all-time monthly high temperatures, and some "firsts" for winter warmth too. International Falls recorded its first January 50 F temperature in its history, and the Twin Cities broke its record for number of 50 F days for the season by early February, racking up 18 by the end of the month. St. Cloud and the Twin Cities both observed their longest January Thaw on record. Rochester and the Twin Cities both observed their warmest February day in recorded history.

Record warm weekend ahead

The record warm weather hits just keep on comin’. Temperatures this weekend will feel more like May than the first weekend of March.

The record high for the Twin Cities Saturday is 54 degrees set in 1923. It will likely get blown away on Saturday. Highs Saturday will ride into the 60s across southern Minnesota.

Sunday also likely brings record warmth. The record high Sunday for the Twin Cities is 65 degrees set way back in 1905. Highs could touch 70 degrees from the Twin Cities southward depending on the timing of an inbound cold front Sunday afternoon.

Next week looks colder with highs back into the 30s and 40s. A few forecast models suggest a chance of snow late next week around Friday to Saturday. There’s still plenty of time to get a good old-fashioned Minnesota March snowstorm.

Stay tuned.