Steamy summer of '24? Climate models leaning warmer than normal

Is it too early to think about summer?

Peeking ahead at some climate models, it appears there may be a trend toward a warmer and more humid than normal summer in Minnesota this year.

The European Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) latest outlooks for summer 2024 show a bias toward warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the United States and Canada (see the map above). Note the location of the highest temperatures relative to normal around the Great Lakes.

Ben Noll is a meteorologist and climate expert with the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in New Zealand.

Steamy too?

There is also the bias for higher than normal dew points across our region this summer according to the Copernicus outlooks.

The Copernicus outlooks continue the three-month temperature trend of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration outlooks. NOAA favors a warmer-than-normal bias overall across the northern U.S. through May.

NOAA’s current temperature outlook for meteorological summer (Jun-Aug) shows a slight bias toward warmer-than-normal weather in the eastern half of Minnesota.

Overall precipitation outlooks favor near-normal rainfall across much of Minnesota with a dry bias in the southwest.

Minnesota has seen flash drought develop the past three summers.

The outlooks arrive in the context of a longer-term warming trend here in Minnesota. March is running about 14 degrees warmer than average so far. If we finish the month warmer than normal, it will be the 12th straight warmer-than-normal month in Minnesota.

So it will be interesting to see if the summer outlooks calling for warmth verify.

Stay tuned.