Heavy snow Sunday evening, warnings continue Monday in northern Minnesota

This winter storm is far from over.

The center of low pressure was over southeastern Colorado Sunday afternoon, headed to Kansas for Monday. It’ll track toward Minnesota on Tuesday. That track will continue to funnel moisture northward Sunday night through Monday night and into Tuesday.

It’ll be cold enough for snow in most areas Sunday night, but the snow is expected to change to a rain/snow mix in far southern Minnesota sometime Sunday evening then eventually to all rain there.

Snow is expected Sunday evening across the remainder of Minnesota and into west-central and northern Wisconsin. The snow will be heavy at times Sunday evening and overnight. Some spots in southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area could have some “thundersnow” at times Sunday evening.

The snow changes to a rain/snow mix sometime after midnight Sunday night in the Twin Cities metro area and in parts of west-central Wisconsin. Most of the metro area will have periods of rain on Monday, with a rain/snow mix possible in the far northwestern part of the metro area.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 7 p.m. Sunday to 11 p.m. Monday:

Forecast snow amounts Sunday evening through Tuesday are highest to the north:

Here are additional snow amounts in the northern Minnesota forecast:

Minnesota road conditions can be found here. Wisconsin road conditions can be found here. North Dakota road conditions can be found here and Iowa’s here.

Here’s a chart of precipitation types for Monday

Winter storm warnings

Winter storm warnings cover much of Minnesota and Wisconsin Sunday evening into Monday:

The winter storm warning in the Twin Cities metro area ends at 4 a.m. Monday. Winter storm warnings continue in much of western and northern Minnesota through Monday night.

Here’s a winter storm discussion from the NWS, plus details of the winter storm warning in the Twin Cities metro area:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 325 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 ...WINTER STORM BRINGING HEAVY WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY... .An impactful winter storm system will continue across Minnesota and Wisconsin tonight and into Monday. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour are likely, with 2 inches per hour possible, especially along and north of I-94. Easterly winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph will combine with the falling snow to produce low visibility. Snow will become more widespread through this evening. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for areas along and north a line extending from New Ulm to Red Wing in Minnesota and all of west-central Wisconsin. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in place for Watonwan, Blue Earth, Waseca and Steele counties through this evening. Tonight, warmer air will cause snow to change over to rain across southern Minnesota, and this warm air will expand eastward on Monday. Areas in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin will likely change over to rain. Areas in western Minnesota will likely remain all snow. There is still some uncertainty on exactly where the rain, snow line will set up. On Monday night and Tuesday, colder air will move in causing a changeover back to snow across much of the region from west to east. A couple more inches of accumulation are possible, but the main concern is for strong northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph to cause blowing snow across western Minnesota. There is also a small chance that some ice could mix in at times Monday night as temperatures drop below freezing. The storm system will exit on Tuesday. MNZ058>063-068>070-250600- /O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-240325T0900Z/ Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott- Dakota- Including the cities of Litchfield, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, and Hastings 325 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches. Winds could gust 30 to 35 mph. * WHERE...The Twin Cities metro area. * WHEN...Until 4 AM CDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. High snowfall rates and patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This will be a heavy wet snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

Snow forecasts for the Twin Cities metro area could be adjusted up or down, based on the timing of the changeover to a rain/snow mix or rain late Sunday night/early Monday.

Here are winter storm warning details for Alexandria, Willmar and St. Cloud:

MNZ041>045-047>050-054>057-064-250600- /O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-240326T1200Z/ Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns- Benton-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Yellow Medicine- Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, Princeton, Mora, Morris, Glenwood, St Cloud, Sauk Rapids, Madison, Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, and Granite Falls 325 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 14 inches. Winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central and west central Minnesota. * WHEN...Until 7 AM CDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. High snowfall rates and patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute on Monday. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This will be a heavy wet snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

A blizzard warning covers much of the North Shore until 7 p.m. Tuesday, with winter storm warnings until 7 p.m. Tuesday from Brainerd and Hinckley to Duluth:

The winter storm warning in International Falls and Hibbing continues until 7 p.m. Tuesday.

Here are details of the blizzard warning along the North Shore in southern Lake County and southern Cook County:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 252 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 MNZ020-021-250800- /O.CON.KDLH.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240327T0000Z/ Southern Lake-Southern Cook- Including the cities of Two Harbors, Silver Bay, and Grand Marais 252 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Additional snow accumulations of 11 to 17 inches and ice accumulations of around one to two tenths of an inch. Locally higher snow amounts up to 19 inches possible in the higher elevations of the North Shore terrain ridge. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Southern Lake and Southern Cook Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation. * WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blizzard conditions are most likely starting on Monday morning and continuing into Monday evening. Ice accumulations are anticipated to begin Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

Here are details of the winter storm warning that includes Brainerd and Duluth:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 252 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 MNZ025-033>038-WIZ001-250800- /O.CON.KDLH.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240327T0000Z/ North Cass-South Cass-Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin- Carlton and South St. Louis-Pine-Douglas- Including the cities of Walker, Pine River, Brainerd, Hill City, Aitkin, Duluth, Pine City, Hinckley, and Superior 252 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of 11 to 15 inches and ice accumulations of around one to two tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...In Minnesota, North Cass, South Cass, Crow Wing, Northern Aitkin, South Aitkin, Carlton and South St. Louis and Pine Counties. In Wisconsin, Douglas County. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Fond du Lac Band and the Mille Lacs Band, Hinckley, East Lake, Big Sandy Lake and, Lena Lake areas. * WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Near blizzard conditions possible Monday, especially in the Twin Ports. Snow may change to freezing rain Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning with up to two tenths of an inch of ice accumulation. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. 

Updated forecast information will be posted by the National Weather Service offices in the Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Wis., Sioux Falls, S.D. and Grand Forks, N.D.

Tuesday snow potential

Cold air spreads back over the Twin Cities metro area on Tuesday, accompanied by some periods of snow. Periods of snow are also expected elsewhere in Minnesota and in portions of Wisconsin on Tuesday.

NOAA’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 6 a.m. Tuesday to 6 p.m. Tuesday:

Some locations could see an inch or two of snow on Tuesday.

Temperature trends

The average Twin Cities high temperature is 46 on March 25. Parts of the metro area will reach the lower 40s on Monday. Minnesota highs will range from 20s in the northwest to 40s in the southeast on Monday:

A similar spread of temps is on tap for Tuesday:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around 30 degrees on Wednesday, followed by upper 30s Thursday then mid 40s on Friday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.