Saturday rain chances highest in northern Minn.; Periods of rain/t-storms Sunday

Clouds will linger across most of Minnesota and Wisconsin this weekend.

Northern Minnesota and parts of northwestern Wisconsin are likely to see periods of rain continue into Saturday afternoon.

A few spots elsewhere in Minnesota, plus west-central Wisconsin, could see a brief shower at some point this afternoon.

Sunday rain outlook

A low pressure system will be in northeastern Kansas/southeastern Nebraska Sunday morning. That low will track northeastward from there, spreading rain and some embedded thunderstorms across much of Minnesota and portions of Wisconsin Sunday into Sunday evening. Northern Minnesota could have dry weather Sunday morning, before the rain moves in during Sunday afternoon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 4 a.m. Sunday to 11 p.m. Sunday:

NOAA’s Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) forecast model shows a somewhat similar rain pattern:

Use the model as a general outlook, since thunderstorm coverage can’t be predicted with high accuracy one day in advance. Breaks in cloud cover during peak heating can lead to more extensive thunderstorm development.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. 

Severe weather outlook

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows the highest risk of severe weather Saturday afternoon through Saturday night will be from Texas northeastward into southwestern Iowa:

Here are the severe weather risk categories that are used by the Storm Prediction Center:

For Sunday and Sunday night, a marginal risk (shaded darker green) of severe weather includes portions of south-central and southeastern Minnesota plus southwestern Wisconsin:

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

Temperature trends

The average Twin Cities high temperature is 62 degrees on April 27. The metro area could see Saturday afternoon highs in the upper 50s to around 60.

Saturday highs will range from 40s in far northern Minnesota to 60s in the far south.

Sunday highs will be in the 40s across much of Minnesota, with some 50s to the south and a few lower 60s in the far southeast:

Monday highs will be in the 40s north, with 50s to the south:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 70s on Tuesday, followed by upper 60s Wednesday then lower 60s Thursday and upper 50s on Friday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.