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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Severe weather risk Tuesday includes the Twin Cities

Stronger storms could produce large hail and potentially damaging winds

Severe weather risk areas 3
Severe weather risk areas Tuesday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Twin Cities National Weather Service office

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Welcome to severe weather season, Minnesota.

A slight risk for severe weather covers much of southwestern Minnesota Tuesday, and a marginal (lower) risk covers areas from Willmar in west-central Minnesota through the Twin Cities. (See the image above.)

Here’s a good reminder of what the various risk categories for severe weather mean:

rt0328risk
Severe weather risk categories
NWS Storm Prediction Center

A low-pressure system will drag a front across Minnesota Tuesday afternoon and evening. The air mass ahead of the front will be warm and humid enough to create a favorable environment for scattered storms.

Many forecast models depict a broken squall line crossing southern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon and evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core model is typical of solutions that drive a broken line of storms into the greater Twin Cities between about 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. Tuesday evening:

NOAA FV3 model
FV3 model between 1 p.m. and 9 p.m. Tuesday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

The primary threats from any storms that do reach severe limits Tuesday are damaging winds to 70 mph and large hail of 1 inch or greater in diameter.

Nicer Wednesday

Wednesday looks like the best day of this week. Plenty of sunshine and high temperatures in the upper 60s in southern Minnesota will feel nice.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
NOAA

Wetter pattern persisting

The jet stream is dealing more frequent rain systems to Minnesota. The next system arrives Thursday into Friday. NOAA’s Global Forecast System model shows the rain progression from south to north on Thursday and Friday:

NOAA GFS model Thursday and Friday
Global Forecast System model Thursday and Friday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Thursday’s drought monitor will likely show continued drought improvement across central and northern Minnesota.

In fact, it’s getting downright soggy in the south and parts of central Minnesota. Some fields in central and southern Minnesota have gone from drought early this spring to standing water in some areas.

Stay tuned.