Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Geomagnetic storms could spark northern lights over Minnesota

A possible sky show with auroras could occur the next two nights.

Sunspots sending Coronal Mass Ejections toward earthhttps://cms.publicradio.org/mprnews/stories/971107/story_revisions/1559843/edit#
Sunspots sending Coronal Mass Ejections toward earth.
NASA via spaceweather.com

Night owls may want to check the northern sky early this week.

A strong (G3) class geomagnetic storm is sending multiple energy waves toward Earth this week. The inbound coronal mass ejections may excite gasses high in Earth’s magnetosphere, and produce auroras the next two nights. (loop above)

Spaceweather.com elaborates on the active, earth-facing sunspot region.

Sunspot complex AR3765-67 is crackling with strong flares--and they're getting stronger. An impulsive X1.5 flare this morning at 0237 UT caused a deep shortwave radio blackout over Japan, southeast Asia and Australia (map). More X-flares are in the offing as the sunspot complex turns directly toward Earth later today. 

Sunspot complex AR3765-67
Sunspot complex AR3765-67.
NASA via spaceweather.com

The sunspot complex is sending multiple waves earthward. So timing the waves could be tricky.

Here’s more from spaceweather.com

series of M-class flares over the weekend hurled multiple CMEs toward Earth. According to a NOAA model, the first two CMEs merged to form a potent Cannibal CME. Strong G3-class geomagnetic storms are possible when it reaches Earth on July 30th. Subscribers to our Space Weather Alert Service will receive an instant text message when the CME arrives.

The Cannibal CME is clearing the way for 2 or more CMEs following behind it. SOHO coronagraphs show a wagon-train of clouds leaving the sun on July 28th:

These CMEs are flying into a void created by the earlier Cannibal CME. With little interplanetary material to slow them down, the storm clouds should reach Earth no later than July 31st, potentially intensifying any geomagnetic storm already underway. If the G3 forecast is correct, auroras will be visible at mid-latitudes across Europe and the USA on July 30-31. 

The CME’s appear to be strong enough to spark northern lights as far north as Minnesota, and possibly as far south as Oklahoma.

Cloud forecasts suggest mostly clear but hazy skies over Minnesota overnight. We may see a few more clouds after midnight. Here’s NOAA’s HRRR model low cloud output overnight into early Tuesday.

NOAA HRRR low cloud forecast
NOAA HRRR model low cloud output between 9 p.m. Monday and 6 a.m. Tuesday.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

Your best chance for seeing northern lights is to get to dark areas away from city lights. A clear and dark northern sky view on the south end of a lake is best. They could occur at any time of the night.

Happy aurora hunting!