Slight severe risk late Wednesday and Thursday

Our next chance for some much-needed rainfall comes with a slight risk of severe weather.

A relatively weak cool front will cross Minnesota on Thursday. Storms will likely bubble up Wednesday in western Minnesota and cross into eastern Minnesota by Thursday.

NOAA’s FV3 model shows the likely progression of storms across Minnesota Wednesday sliding into eastern Minnesota Thursday. The forecast model loop below runs between 7 a.m. Wednesday and 7 a.m. Thursday. The precise location and timing of storms will evolve but this gives you a general idea of coverage and timing.

As you can see at the top of this post, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center lays out a slight risk for severe storms across most of eastern Minnesota, on Thursday. For those who want to geek out on the state of the atmosphere above Minnesota on Thursday, here’s the technical forecast discussion from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.

At the surface, a cold front will extend roughly north to south/southwest from western MN into southeast NE at midday. Ahead of this feature, southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across IA into eastern MN/western WI. The warm sector will remain rather narrow due to generally high pressure and a drier boundary layer over much of the Midwest east of the MS River. Nevertheless, within the axis of greater moisture/low-level theta-e, around 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast. Organized thunderstorm clusters and line segments will pose a risk of isolated severe gusts and hail through early evening. The severe risk should rapidly diminish beyond 00z with loss of daytime heating, limited moisture/instability with eastward extent, and weakening deep-layer flow.

Overall rainfall coverage looks patchy. But some locations could pick up one to two inches of rainfall locally.

Highs Wednesday will remain in the summery 80s ahead of the front.

Keep an eye out for possible severe weather watches and warnings on Wednesday and Thursday.