Hurricane Helene expected to reach Category 4 strength

Here we go again.

Another hurricane is undergoing rapid intensification in the Gulf of Mexico. This one is Hurricane Helene. Helene is a well-developed hurricane moving north into the balmy waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have been running between 85 and 88 degrees. That warm water is like rocket fuel for Helen to rapidly develop. The latest forecasts for Helene expect maximum sustained winds of 130 mph as it approaches landfall late Thursday.

NOAA’s National Hurricane Center has this eye-opening discussion of the intensification potential for Helene.

The environment appears primed for significant strengthening while Helene moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track more or less runs along the axis of the Loop Current during the next 24 hours, where ocean temperatures are about 30 degrees Celsius. In addition, Helene will be moving through an environment of low vertical shear and strong upper-level divergence. Some of the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices, particular DTOPS, respond to this environment by indicating at least a 90 percent chance of a 35-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at 24 hours, which is mirrored by several of the regional hurricane models and the SHIPS guidance. It should be noted that additional strengthening is possible beyond 24 hours before Helene makes landfall Thursday evening.

Storm surge forecasts with Helene have been bumped up to 15 to 20 feet near and right of the expected eyewall landfall zone in Florida’s Big Bend. Surge as high as 5 to 8 feet is expected in the Tampa area far away from the storm center.

Helene is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds and damaging gusts will extend well inland across Florida and much of the southeast U.S. Again, here’s the NHC discussion regarding the size and damaging wind potential with Helene.

Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. A higher-than-normal gust factor has been indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland.

I expect widespread damage from Helene well inland in the next 48 hours.