It’s a close race for Michigan. These factors could decide it for Harris or Trump

Michigan is part of Vice President Kamala Harris’ clearest path to the White House.

The state is part of the “blue wall,” along with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, that she and Democrats need to hold to avoid a second Donald Trump presidency.

It's home to some of the key demographics that both parties are courting this election, from white voters without college degrees to the largest Black-majority city, Detroit, and one of the nation’s largest Arab American populations.

But the path to victory is not easy this year. Harris and Trump remain in a close battle, as his populist message continues to resonate with white voters and union and blue-collar workers, particularly on the economy.

Dave Dulio, a professor of political science and director of the Center for Civic Engagement at Oakland University, says "in places like Macomb County, with many blue-collar voters and union workers, Trump made inroads by pledging to get the U.S. out of bad trade deals and renegotiate NAFTA, which he did."

“I think they still give him credit for that," he added.

Dulio underscores the state’s significance by noting that small shifts could lead to substantial changes for candidates: “If you take a small shift among the Arab American community and a small shift among union workers, those multiple small shifts could drive a very different result.”

Both candidates have heaped attention recently on the Wolverine State. On Oct 4, Harris visited a Redford Charter Township firehouse near Detroit, meeting union representatives. She met with Arab American and Muslim leaders then appeared with United Auto Workers union President Shawn Fain in Flint and vowed support for Michigan's auto industry. Trump held campaign events twice in September and took his presidential campaign to Saginaw Valley State University in Kochville Township on Oct. 3.

Michigan also plays to the strengths of the vice presidential nominees, who hail from the Midwest. Both Ohio Sen. JD Vance and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz have stumped in the state in the last month.

To better understand the key issues shaping voters' decisions—from the economy and immigration to abortion and U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East — we are in Michigan this week hearing directly from voters and political observers as part of our “We, The Voters” series.

What voters here care about

A September poll by The New York Times and Siena College found that Michigan voters cared most about the economy, followed by abortion and immigration.

Economy 

Michigan’s unemployment rate is historically low, according to state data, but it has slowly ticked up in recent months. Meanwhile, inflation has eased, but high costs of living remain a concern.

The state continues to suffer from the decades-long decline of automobile manufacturing, and high interest rates have constricted sales of cars, according to a September study from the University of Michigan.

Both parties are trying to put focus on the economy. GOP attack ads argue that Biden and Harris are responsible for inflation, while the vice president’s messaging focuses on plans to uplift the middle class and paint Trump-era tax cuts as benefiting the wealthy.

Meghan Wilson, an expert in public policy and urban development, said Harris could expand the Democratic position on economics by appealing to Black business owners and holders of student debt.

“African Americans in Detroit have a lot of small businesses, and so we're looking for capital for those kinds of small businesses. I think Kamala Harris is doing a great job of bringing the small businesses into the conversation,” Wilson explained.

Organized labor plays a key role in Michigan’s economy. Both parties are making a play for Michigan’s union members, who accounted for 13 percent of workers in the state last year. Exit polls in 2020 showed Michigan’s union voters favoring President Biden over Trump, and Biden pledged to be “the most pro-union president” in U.S. history, which he backed up with a visit to UAW workers striking in Wayne, Mich.

Michigan pollster Bernie Porn said Biden’s visit to striking workers helped him bump up his union support, but his policies to advance electric vehicles with tax credits were unpopular with Independent and Republican voters.

“You have Harris leading among union members with 63 percent which is almost where Biden was in 2020 with 65 percent, so she's improving her lot among union members, but still, the EVs are a problem,” he said.

Still, one encouraging sign for the Harris campaign could be Michigan’s local Teamsters union backing her candidacy, breaking with the national union that declined to endorse any candidate for U.S. president, after they had supported every Democratic candidate for president since Bill Clinton.

Abortion

Two years ago, Michigan voters approved a landmark amendment to the state constitution, securing the right to abortion and other reproductive health services.

Democrats won control of all three branches of Michigan’s governments since making abortion a central voting issue.

But that success may have made it a less influential issue in the 2024 election. A KFF poll in June found that women in Michigan saw abortion as “decided” and they were more concerned about inflation and the rising cost of living.

“The Democrats are putting an awful lot of their eggs in the basket of abortion,” the pollster Porn said.

Dulio pointed out that Trump's main weakness stems from what has driven Democratic success in every election — and not necessarily abortion since it’s already decided in the state: “His character remains a key weakness. He’s deeply unpopular because of the Jan. 6 spectacle and doubling down on his claims that the 2020 election was stolen. That just turns off persuadable voters,” he said.

Harris needs support from Black and Arab American voters, but it won’t come easy

Michigan is home to one of the largest Black populations in the nation, ahead of Louisiana, Alabama and South Carolina, and the largest Black-majority city, Detroit.

Harris would herself be the nation’s first Black woman president, but some Black voters may not be as motivated to vote as they were in 2020.

“The main challenge is the enthusiasm gap,” said Ronald Brown, a political scientist at Wayne State University. He said among Black voters in Michigan, those who were in the “black leadership class” — meaning serving in government, churches, Black fraternities and sororities — were highly likely to vote for Harris. However, those without deep connections to the party, especially working-class and poor Detroit residents, were susceptible to sitting out elections. In particular, he pointed to Detroit’s recent voter turnout — higher in 2020 than it was in 2016 — as a key factor explaining the state’s pick for Biden after it went for Trump four years earlier.

“What could occur is that among working class and poor Black voters, lack of interest could lead to fatigue and this may drive those voters not to vote. And in Michigan, you don’t need many. You need enough,” he said.

Democratic state Sen. Sarah Anthony has a different perspective. She had seen an encouraging gain among young people to help shore up Harris’ base.

“The Biden coalition included many working-class white men, a group Vice President Harris has struggled to win over. While there may have been losses there, the data I've seen shows significant gains due to increased enthusiasm among young people and people of color,” she said.

U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East

The Detroit Metropolitan area has the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the U.S. Dearborn, often called the Capital of Arab America, is home to a majority of Lebanese residents who maintain strong ties to southern Lebanon.

Arab and Muslim voters here were largely supportive of Biden in 2020. However, many have since been alienated by his handling of Israel’s deadly war in Gaza and the administration’s ongoing military aid to Israel. Many now are similarly concerned about Israel's continuing bombardment of Beirut and ground invasion along the countries' shared border.

Abbas Alawieh, a Dearborn Democratic strategist and one of the co-founders of the “uncommitted movement," backed Biden in 2020. But earlier this year, he and other organizers successfully secured more than 100,000 “uncommitted” votes in the Michigan primary to protest Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza.

Alawieh, who had advocated for a Gaza ceasefire, told Morning Edition host Leila Fadel that he feels more despair now as the conflict spreads to his family's homeland, Lebanon.

“This is a grieving community. So, for us to give guidance to vote for Kamala Harris, when she is part of the administration that's actively killing their family members, it's like giving a campaign speech at a funeral.”

Professor Dubio said the uncommitted movement has the potential to "have a huge impact," and while he believes many of them will ultimately vote for Harris, he added, "it can't and shouldn't be ignored."

Abbas mentioned sending letters to Vice President Harris's team, including her national security advisor, requesting meetings with those directly affected by the wars in Gaza and Lebanon. "So far, the answer is still no."

He added that Donald Trump visited the community, took photos with leaders, and invited them to his campaign rally.

Saeed Khan, an associate professor of Near Eastern and Asian Studies at Wayne State University, said Muslim and Arab voters were drifting toward Trump in 2016, and some continue to do so today, not only because of a push away from Democrats, but also a pull toward the Republican party’s values. Many Arabs and Muslims, immigrant Muslims, voted for the Republican ticket at least until September 11 and then started to move toward the Democratic Party.

“The Republican message of self-reliance, smaller government or less government intrusion, lower taxes, social conservatism really appealed to many, especially immigrant Muslims and Arabs, because it epitomized the American Dream that they had internalized,” Khan said.

The audio version of the story was produced by Ziad Buchh and edited by Arezou Rezvani.

Copyright 2024, NPR

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