Warmer-than-normal November likely, but a more challenging winter is ahead

Minnesota is living through the warmest meteorological autumn on record so far, and it appears the relatively mild weather may persist for most of November.

But then a weak La Niña event in the tropical Pacific favors a colder winter than last year.

Jet stream patterns this November continue to favor periods of warmer-than-normal weather across the Upper Midwest.

The map below shows the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model 500-millibar upper-air jet stream pattern over the next 10 days. Note the frequent red zones across our region indicating warmer than normal air masses.

NOAA’s six to 10-day temperature outlooks favor warmer-than-normal temperatures into next week.

The 8 to 14-day outlooks continue the trend.

And NOAA’s monthly outlook for November (at the top of the post) favors more red across our region.

Colder winter ahead?

We led charmed weather lives last winter in Minnesota. Last winter was the warmest winter on record dating back to the late 1800s. Last winter was 10 degrees warmer than normal in much of our state.

So the bar is low for a colder winter than last year.

While a weak La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean may not produce jet stream patterns as severe as a stronger La Niña event, it should be enough to give Minnesota a much more respectable winter.

NOAA’s temperature outlook for December through February favors colder-than-normal temperatures in most of central and western Minnesota.

Often the colder and snowier effects of La Niña favor the second half of winter into early spring. So it’s possible our milder-than-normal air could linger into early December.

I’ve seen La Niña years really kick in with arctic outbreaks and frequent snow starting in mid-January and lasting through March.

It will be super interesting to see how this winter unfolds.

Stay tuned.