Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Scattered light showers Saturday. Snow chance next weekend?

Temperatures still running milder than normal so far in November.

A late fall sky at the Weather Lab
A late fall sky at the Weather Lab
Paul Huttner | MPR News

It’s a beautiful late fall Friday as I type this post. You can see the leafy lawn blanket with a few stray leaves on the trees below a pretty blue sky at the Weather Lab in the photo above.

So far, temperatures in the Twin Cities are running 4.8 degrees warmer than normal for November.

This weekend features a fading weather system that dumped heavy snowfall in Colorado easing into Minnesota. The system will bring scattered light rain showers, especially Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

On the map below, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s FV3 model shows the trend between 7 a.m. Saturday and noon Sunday.

NOAA FV3 model
Finite­-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core model between 7 a.m. Saturday and noon Sunday.
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Rainfall totals with our weekend system look light, generally less than one-quarter inch in most areas.

NOAA GFS precipitation output
Global Forecast System precipitation output through Sunday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Highs on Saturday will range through the 40s to low 50s across Minnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Saturday
Forecast high temperatures Saturday
NOAA

Sunday brings high temperatures in the low 50s south with 40s north.

Forecast high temperatures Sunday
Forecast high temperatures Sunday
NOAA

Next week looks slightly warmer than normal for November.

The normal high and low temperatures for the Twin Cities by next Wednesday are 43 and 29 degrees. Highs will run most in the 40s with a few lower 50s next week.

The American Global Forecast System model has hinted at possible snow for parts of Minnesota next Saturday for a couple of days now.

Here’s the map for next Saturday night from Friday morning’s 12Z run:

NOAA GFS model
Global Forecast System model output for midnight Sunday, Nov. 17
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

So far, the Environment Canada and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts models have not developed snow across Minnesota next weekend. So we’ll see if NOAA’s Global Forecast System is out to lunch here, or if it’s onto something.

Stay tuned.