Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Wednesday rain; hurricane potential again for Florida next week?

Steadiest rainfall likely west of the Twin Cities Wednesday.

NOAA HRRR model
NOAA HRRR model between midnight and 9 p.m. Wednesday.
NOAA via pivotal weather

Our next rainmaker is on the way Wednesday.

NOAA’s HRRR model above shows the likely rainfall zone between midnight and 9 p.m. Wednesday.

Rainfall with this system looks light to moderate across Minnesota. It still looks like the steadiest rains will fall west of the Twin Cities across western and central Minnesota. The European model rainfall output is similar to other forecast models. It suggests a narrow band of rainfall west of the Twin Cities of half an inch with higher totals of around an inch possible locally. Little rain is expected in the Twin Cities.

European model (ECMWF) precipitation output
European model (ECMWF) precipitation output this week.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Temperatures will be seasonably chilly again Wednesday with mostly 40s across Minnesota.

Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday.
NOAA

The normal high and low for the Twin Cities Wednesday are 43 and 29 degrees.

Another Flordia hurricane next week?

This record hurricane season for Florida may still get worse next week. Most forecast models generate another hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. The models suggest a possible landfall once again on Floridaa’s Gulf Cost toward the middle of next week.

NOAA gives the storm a high chance for development.

NOAA
NOAA storm development outlook.
NOAA/NHC

It’s too early to be confident about a possible landfall next week. But forecast models are cranking out solutions that bring Florida’s Gulf Coast into the risk zone once again.

Please note these forecasts will change many times over the next week. Do not assume these solutions are correct a week in advance.

NOAA’’s GFS model suggests a landfall next Wednesday.

NOAA GFS model 2
NOAA GFS model output for 1 p.m. EST Wednesday, November 20.
NOAA via tropical tidbits

The European model is a little further south.

European model (ECMWF)
European model (ECMWF) forecast for 7 p.m. EST Wednesday, November 20.
ECMWF via pivotal weather

Needless to say everyone from Cuba to the Big Bend in northwest Florida will need to be on watch for a possible hurricane strike next week.

Stay tuned.