Significant snow potential emerging for Minnesota next week
Forecast models cranking up a rain to snow storm next week across much of Minnesota.
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Get those last leaves raked up and the yard put away this weekend, Minnesota.
It’s still early, but multiple forecast models are cranking up a strong rain-to-snow event across much of Minnesota next week.
The models suggest a rain system will spin into Minnesota late Monday and Tuesday, then possibly stall in the Upper Midwest through midweek. As it spins over Minnesota, it will likely pull in a feed of cold air strong enough to change rain to snow through midweek next week. And forecast models suggest heavy snowfall is possible.
Let’s start with NOAA’s GFS model. The GFS spins the system into Minnesota late Monday into Tuesday with an initial burst of (needed) rain. Then it stalls pulling in colder air and changing precipitation to mostly snow. Here’s NOAA’s GFS run between noon Monday and 6 p.m. Wednesday of next week.
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Notice how the storm stalls over Lake Superior and then spins back to the south? In this scenario, snowfall would be heaviest across central and northern Minnesota with lighter wrap-around snow in the Twin Cities and the south.
The European model also drives a storm into our region next week with similar timing. Here’s the European model output for 6 a.m. next Wednesday. It suggests mostly rain in the Twin Cities, with a transition zone to heavy, wet snow in the west and north.
I won’t post snowfall output yet because it’s folly to try and predict with significant forecast model errors a week in advance. But suffice it to say the potential for heavy plowable snow is growing next week, especially west and north of the Twin Cities.
I have higher confidence that temperatures will plunge for an extended period behind the system. Models show higher skill with temperature trends than precipitation. NOAA’s GFS model suggests we plummet into the 20s and 30s for several days behind next week’s storm.
It’s been a lovely extended autumn here in Minnesota. It looks like the door is about to slam shut on autumn and give way to a wintry landscape in much of Minnesota next week.
Stay tuned.
