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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Clippers bring snow this week, increasing chances for a white Christmas

Snow likely Tuesday and Thursday; several inches possible by late Thursday

Snowfall projection
Snowfall projection
Twin Cities National Weather Service office

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Our chances for a white Christmas are beginning to look better.

A pair of Alberta clippers will sail southeast across Minnesota this week. The first system targets southern Minnesota with light snow Tuesday. The second system looks stronger and may produce a more widespread snow shield Thursday.

System No. 1

Our first clipper will produce snow in southeastern Minnesota early Tuesday morning. Snow will gradually spread east Tuesday and could reach as far north as the Twin Cities Thursday afternoon.

On the map below, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows the likely progression of the snow zone between 6 a.m. Tuesday and midnight Wednesday.

NOAA HRRR model
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model between 6 a.m.Tuesday and midnight Wednesday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Snowfall accumulations generally look light with Tuesday’s system. A band of 1 to 3 inches is likely across southwestern Minnesota with an inch or less around the Twin Cities.

NOAA’s NAM 3 km model is a bit more aggressive with snowfall near the Twin Cities:

NOAA NAM model
North American Mesoscale model snowfall forecast output through Wednesday morning
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Temperatures Tuesday will run mainly in the 20s, so anything that falls will stick. Be aware of possible slick roads on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
Forecast high temperatures Tuesday
NOAA

System No. 2

Forecast models show a stronger system sliding across Minnesota Thursday. That should produce a more widespread snow zone with potentially heavier accumulations.

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model shows a pretty classic clipper with snow spreading across Minnesota Thursday. The forecast model loop below runs between midnight Thursday and midnight Friday.

NOAA GFS model
Global Forecast System model between midnight Thursday and midnight Friday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Models from NOAA’s Global Forecast System and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggest around 4 to 5 inches around the Twin Cities by Friday morning.

NOAA GFS snowfall output
Global forecast System snowfall output through Thursday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Obviously, the eventual snowfall distribution and magnitude will vary with future model runs this week.

Highs through Saturday will mainly be in the teens and 20s across Minnesota so what snow falls will stick through the weekend.

But there are signs of a possible thaw Christmas week. We’ll have to see how white or beige it is around Minnesota by Christmas Day.

Stay tuned.

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