Winter storm warning includes the Twin Cities Thursday
Plowable snow likely Thursday from Twin Cities north; slick roads, rush hours
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We’re tracking our next snow maker sailing toward Minnesota for Thursday.
This system looks well organized. It will likely produce a large snow shield across most of Minnesota Thursday. Winter storm warnings have been posted for much of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities area.
Including the cities of St Cloud, Center City, Cambridge, Shakopee, Long Prairie, Minneapolis, Princeton, Alexandria, Chaska, Sauk Rapids, Elk River, Monticello, Chanhassen, Hastings, Stillwater, St Paul, Blaine, Mora, Little Falls, and Victoria
115 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024 ...WINTER STORM
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 7 inches.
* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, and west central Minnesota.
* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight CST Thursday Night.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Thursday morning and evening commutes.
Storm timing
Our inbound storm system is essentially an Alberta clipper-style storm. These typically zip quickly from northwest to southeast across Minnesota.
Snow will break out in the Red River Valley and northwestern Minnesota before midnight then spread quickly east. Snow will likely reach the Twin Cities by around 3 a.m. to 4 a.m. Thursday.
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On the map below, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model shows Thursday’s system tracking southeast across Minnesota.
Confidence factor
Forecast models give us high confidence this system will lay out a wide band of significant snowfall north of the Twin Cities.
On the southern end of the storm, a likely dry slot will produce a sharp cutoff in snowfall intensity and totals near or south of the Twin Cities, so there is lower confidence for snowfall totals just south of the Twin Cities.
If the storm stays on the current forecast track, the Twin Cities will likely get several inches of plowable snow. If it shifts north just 30 miles, less snow will fall, especially in the southern Twin Cities.
Snowfall totals
Given the possible forecast storm track changes mentioned above, here are the current snowfall estimates for Thursday’s system. Here’s NOAA’s latest version:
Most forecast models lay out a band of between 3 and 7 inches from the Twin Cities northward. Here’s NOAA’s North American Mesoscale model. Note the sharp cutoff in snowfall just south of the Twin Cities:
On the map below, NOAA’s Weather Research & Forecasting model has a higher-end snowfall solution with up to 10 inches in the Twin Cities!
Stay tuned as we update forecasts through Thursday.
