Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Light snow for Thursday afternoon commute; more snow likely Sunday

An inch or two up north Thursday; less than an inch likely in the Twin Cities

Snowfall projection for Minnesota 2
Snowfall projection for Minnesota through Thursday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

How are your winter driving skills?

It’s been a while since we’ve seen snow in much of Minnesota. But Thursday could bring slippery roads, especially in central and northern Minnesota. Sunday’s snow could be heavier.

snow plows clear a highway
Minnesota Department of Transportation snow plows clear Interstate 94 in St. Paul during a winter storm last month.
Ben Hovland | MPR News

Thursday’s system brings light snow to western Minnesota in the morning. Bands of light snow will likely reach the Twin Cities Thursday after about 2 p.m. or 3 p.m. The snow looks fairly light and probably won’t dramatically impact the Twin Cities commute on Thursday afternoon.

Here’s the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model:

NOAA NAM 3 km model
North American Mesoscale 3 km model between 6 a.m. Thursday and 6 a.m. Friday
NOAA, via Tropical Tidbits

Overall snowfall accumulations will be 1 to 2 inches across most of central and northern Minnesota. Less than an inch is likely in the Twin Cities and the south.

Temperatures Thursday will rise into the upper 20s south. That means any road treatment will work effectively. Where it’s colder up north, roads could get slick.

Forecast high temperatures Thursday
Forecast high temperatures Thursday
NOAA

Accumulating snow Sunday

Sunday’s clipper still looks like our best chance for decent snowfall. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model shows a fairly impressive clipper tracking a snow shield across Minnesota by 6 a.m. Sunday:

European model (ECMWF)
Forecast for 6 a.m. Sunday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

Many of us could wake to a couple of inches of fresh snow on Sunday. Overall snowfall totals favor a wide band of 1 to 3 inches with some locally higher totals.

NOAA’s latest 18Z model run lays down a wide zone of 1 to 3 inches across Minnesota, with a core of 6 inches plus potential snowfall in the north into North Dakota:

NOAA GFS snowfall output
Global Forecast System snowfall output through Sunday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

Stay tuned.