Here we go again: Winter storm watch Wednesday includes SE Twin Cities
Expect forecast changes and possible surprises with this storm
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The weather maps giveth this March. We’re on pace for about a storm a week on the maps this month.
Another powerful storm will blast much of southern Minnesota within 48 hours. The good news? We’ll pick up another 1 to 2 inches of much needed moisture across drought-stressed southern Minnesota.
However, much of that looks likely to come down as heavy wind-driven snow with a side of thunder Wednesday. Blizzard conditions are possible Wednesday in parts of southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.
Oh, and just to make sure meteorologists get a few more gray hairs? It looks like there will be another ridiculously rapid transition zone between just a little rainy slop and more than 6 inches of heavy wet-cement snow right across the Twin Cities from northwest to southeast.
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The eastern and southern Twin Cities have been added to the winter storm watch for Wednesday:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
238 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025
...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WIND LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
Confidence continues to increase in a band of heavy snow developing across the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will start as rain, and quickly transition to a heavy, wet snow, with snowfall rates of an inch per hour or greater. In addition to the heavy snow, northerly winds of 30 to 40 mph will develop causing blowing and drifting snow. In south central Minnesota, winds gusts could exceed 45 mph, which could lead to whiteout conditions.
Washington-Scott-Dakota-Barron-St. Croix- Including the cities of Hastings, Hudson, Shakopee, Rice Lake, and Stillwater
238 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 7 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.
* WHERE...In Minnesota, Dakota, Scott, and Washington Counties. In Wisconsin, Barron and St. Croix Counties.
* WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning and evening commutes.
Ready everyone?
Let’s dig into the teeth of our next inbound sloppy March storm.
The system
A deep, wrapped up low-pressure system will spin from Colorado Tuesday to north of Chicago by 6 p.m. Wednesday. The system has a direct pipeline of moisture form the Gulf that will lay down heavy precipitation totals of 1 to 2 inches across much of southern Minnesota.
Some of that will be rain, but a narrower swath about 2 counties wide will see strong dynamical cooling to change rain to snow for several hours Wednesday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model is among the northernmost snow solutions and brings the Twin Cities in on the heavier snow zone for a few hours.
The forecast model loop below runs between 6 p.m. Tuesday and 6 p.m. Wednesday.
Temperature critical storm
This storm looks temperature critical, meaning temperatures right around the freezing mark in the lowest mile of the atmosphere.
That means rain or snow and mixed icy precipitation is possible. Dynamical cooling favors heavy wet snow. But time of day and more powerful March daylight even through clouds favors rain, especially on the edges of the system where dynamical cooling is weakest.
Note how the Global Forecast System model loop above changes snow to rain over the Twin Cities in the last frames during the warmest part of the day Wednesday. That means some locations could get a couple inches of slush then rain limiting snowfall totals.
High forecast bust potential
With temperatures right on the rain-snow line and storm track differences between forecast models, there is higher than usual bust potential for this system.
If the storm tracks even 30 miles farther north, we could get more than 6 inches of heavy wet snow in the Twin Cities. If the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is right it could be a couple slushy inches with rain on top and not as much impact.
I always say Minnesota snow storms are like a box of Cracker Jack. They usually come with a free toy surprise inside.
Expect forecast changes and possible surprises with this storm Wednesday. Let’s see what Tuesday’s forecast model do with storm track and snowfall potential.
Stay tuned.
