All 201 Minnesota legislative seats are on November’s ballot. These are the most competitive

Control of the Minnesota Legislature is at stake in November. Both parties will be hitting the pavement and spending big to move the needle from the almost evenly split setup now.

The results could decide what moves forward in St. Paul when it comes to policy, taxes and spending decisions for schools, public safety, health and social service programs and more.

While all 201 legislative seats will be on the ballot, only a small fraction are considered truly competitive. These contests will see the most spending, attention from state — and potentially national — party organizations and focus on swaying voters in districts where there’s a potential to flip party control.

It takes 68 seats for an outright House majority and 34 in the Senate. At the end of last session, the House was knotted 67-67, and Democrats had a single-seat edge in the Senate.

Republicans see some of their best opportunities to flip seats held by Democrats in greater Minnesota, while Democrats are aiming to pick up seats in the Twin Cities suburbs and larger population centers outside the metro. Lawmaker retirements could open up closer contests in a variety of legislative districts.

Historically, midterm elections turn out better for the party not in power in the White House. That means Democrats could see a boost from voters unhappy with the Trump administration and Republicans in Washington. DFLers have centered their messaging around affordability.

They also hope that their candidate for governor, Amy Klobuchar, can boost voter turnout. All but one of Klobuchar’s past U.S. Senate victories have coincided with DFL gains in the Legislature — 2024 was the lone exception.

Republicans, meanwhile, are keyed into fraud in state government programs and say the issue will drive voters out to support them. They have relied somewhat over the past decade on GOP turnout driven by having Donald Trump also on the ballot, which he won’t be this year.

Here’s a look at the races under the hottest spotlight ahead of Election Day.

Greater Minnesota Democrats largely on defense

Senate District 3: Hauschild vs. Zupancich

A state Senate rematch in a geographically expansive northeastern Minnesota district has drawn more campaign spending than any other race. It puts a first-term DFLer on defense. Sen. Grant Hauschild, of Hermantown, will again face Babbitt Mayor Andrea Zupancich, a Republican, who came up shy in their last race. Hauschild won by just 703 votes in 2022. Spending in the race has already exceeded $1 million, according to campaign finance reports filed last week. The Republican-aligned Advance Minnesota spent $480,000 against Hauschild in the contest and national Republican-backed group Renew Minnesota put in another $300,000 in the effort to defeat the senator. Republicans and their allies are also spending in support of Zupancich. The DFL Senate Caucus has spent $78,000 on behalf of Hauschild, according to recent campaign reports.

House District 3B: Zeleznikar vs. Schweige

Within that district, Republican Rep. Natalie Zeleznikar is aiming to fend off a challenge from Democrat Aaron Schweige, a business owner, in the district that covers a swath of towns that hug the Duluth metro and run far into St. Louis County. Zeleznikar ended the career of long-serving state Rep. Mary Murphy, a Democrat, in 2022. It flipped the seat to Republicans that year by just 33 votes. She won reelection against Democrat Mark Munger in 2024 by 159 votes.

Senate District 4: Kupec vs. Peterson

In northwest Minnesota, DFL Sen. Rob Kupec faces Republican Austin Peterson, an entrepreneur. Kupec won the seat representing the Moorhead area, along with parts of Becker and Clay counties, by 1,727 votes in 2022. The district is split in its representation in the Minnesota House. DFL Rep. Heather Keeler represented the House district that included the Moorhead region. She isn’t running again. Republican Rep. Jim Joy represents the more rural District 4B. Spending in the race has topped $1 million, with most of that coming from groups opposing Kupec’s reelection. Advance Minnesota, Renew Minnesota, Empower Minnesota and the Pro Jobs Majority, along with Minnesotans Concerned For Life’s political action committee and Republicans spent more than $717,000 opposing Kupec. Meanwhile, the Senate DFL Caucus and state Democratic Party put up almost $58,000 backing his campaign as of mid-September.

Senate District 14: Putnam vs. Perryman

In the St. Cloud area, DFL Sen. Aric Putnam is in a high-profile race with Republican Rep. Bernie Perryman. The district supported President Donald Trump in his 2024 reelection bid and split with one House district within the Senate district supporting a Democrat, Rep. Dan Wolgamott, and the other electing Perryman. Putnam first won the seat by just over 300 votes in 2020 and kept it by defeating then-Rep. Tama Theis in a 2022 contest by a broader margin. With both House seats open after Wolgamott launched an unsuccessful bid for state auditor and as Perryman vies for the Senate seat, close contests are expected down ballot, too. More on that below. Spending in the race has cracked the $1 million mark with more than $700,000 of that coming from Pro Jobs Majority, Advance Minnesota and Renew Minnesota targeting Putnam.

Democrats look to swing suburban seats

Senate District 32: Kreun vs. Ford

Democrats are looking to flip a Senate seat in Anoka County that covers Blaine, Columbus, Ham Lake and Lexington. Republican Sen. Michael Kreun was first elected in 2022 and is facing Democrat Chris Ford, a Blaine City Council member. So far, there’s been more than $426,000 spent in the race with the Senate DFL Caucus spending almost $33,000 aiming to unseat Kreun. Pro Jobs Majority spent more than $120,000 supporting him. Half the district is represented by a Democrat in the House, Rep. Matt Norris, while the other half is represented by Rep. Nolan West, a Republican. Both parties view those House races as potentially close, too. Norris faces Republican Leslie Larson, a Blaine City Council member, in the contest for the 32B seat and West will go up against Democrat Amanda Matchett, an attorney.

Senate District 33: Housley vs. Smith

Republican Sen. Karin Housley is aiming for a new term in a contest against Democrat Nat Smith, an attorney. Housley has represented the Stillwater-area district since 2013 with breaks when she ran unsuccessful bids for lieutenant governor and U.S. Senate. Her margins of victory have narrowed in more recent elections. The district is split in House representation with Democratic Rep. Josiah Hill representing District 33B and Republican Rep. Patti Anderson representing House District 33A. Anderson is not seeking another term, which opens that seat to a potentially competitive contest between Democrat Angela Thompson, as social worker and member of the White Bear Lake School Board, and Republican Stacey Stout, an attorney and Mahtomedi School Board member.

Senate District 35: Abeler vs. Nelson

Democrats see one of their best pickup opportunities by taking on GOP Sen. Jim Abeler. He holds the seat representing Anoka, Andover and Coon Rapids. The Minnesota Senate DFL Caucus has funneled more than $30,000 into the contest between Abeler and school principal Angela Nelson. Abeler has served in the Senate since 2016 and in the Legislature since 1999. The area has trended toward DFLers in recent years with both House seats in District 35 currently occupied by Democrats. Abeler narrowly beat now Rep. Kari Rehrauer in the Senate race in 2022 by 186 votes. House DFL Caucus Leader Zack Stephenson represents half of the district and could see a competitive repeat contest against Republican Josh Jungling, the charitable gambling manager for Anoka Ramsey Athletic Association. Rehrauer could also see a close repeat contest against Republican Steve Pape, an engineer. Rehrauer eked out a 280-vote win in 2024.

Senate District 48: Coleman vs. Kessler

Republican Sen. Julia Coleman is in a fight to hang onto her west metro suburban seat. She’s in a rematch with Democrat Dan Kessler, a psychologist. The district that encompasses Chaska, Chanhassen, Waconia and areas of Carver County. The Senate DFL Caucus spent more than $10,000 opposing Coleman in the race, while independent expenditure group Advance Minnesota is spending almost $160,000 opposing Kessler. Half the district is represented by a Republican, Rep. Jim Nash, while the other half is represented by Democratic Rep. Lucy Rehm. She could see another close race in a rematch with Republican Caleb Steffenhagen, a teacher, who lost that first race by 225 votes two years ago.

House District 34A: Nadeau vs. Heaser

One of Democrats’ top targets this cycle is Republican Rep. Danny Nadeau. He was first elected in 2022 and represents parts of Rogers, Dayton and Champlin. Democrat Jason Heaser, a prosecutor, hopes to flip the district to DFL control. The broader Senate District is currently represented by a Democrat, John Hoffman, and House District 34B is as well, Rep. XP Lee. The House DFL Caucus is making funding ads in the district opposing Nadeau; they’ve spent nearly $78,000 so far.

House District 45A: Myers vs. Breazeale

Democrats see another pickup opportunity in the communities near Lake Minnetonka. Republican Rep. Andrew Myers, who is serving his second term, will see a repeat race there against Democrat Tracey Breazeale, a former business executive. Democrats hope the seat goes the way of the broader Senate District 45 and House District 45B — both are represented by DFLers.

Retirements spur competition for open seats

House Districts 14A and 14B: Conway vs. Daisane, Ek vs. Dorholt

In the St. Cloud area, both District 14 House seats will see new lawmakers because the prior occupants pursued other opportunities. Bernie Perryman is leaving the 14A seat to run for state Senate. Republican Michael Conway, a St. Cloud City Council member, and Democrat and businessman Abdi Daisane are competing to succeed Perryman. In 14B, Dan Wolgamott’s failed bid for auditor left the seat up for grabs. Republicans see a chance to pick up the seat. Wolgamott beat Sue Ek by 191 votes in 2024. Ek, a communications professional, is running again and faces DFLer Zach Dorholt, a former legislator. The House DFL Caucus has spent more than $70,000 in an effort to hold the seat.

Senate District 24: Pierson vs. Glaser

Republican Sen. Carla Nelson is retiring after five terms representing the Rochester area. That’s made for a potentially close race between Republican Nels Pierson, a former state representative, and Simon Glaser, a teacher. The two House districts within the Senate district are politically split with Republican Duane Quam, representing Stewartville and various townships west of Rochester, and Democrat Tina Liebling, who represents the half that includes a swath of Rochester. The Minnesota DFL Party has spent more than $65,000 on the Senate race through mid-September.

House District 36A: Stoss vs. DeMay

In the Lino Lakes area, another House is open after the incumbent — GOP Rep. Elliott Engen — tried for state auditor. Republican Sebastian Stoss and Democrat Jim DeMay are after the job. Democrat Heather Gustafson represents the district in the state Senate and Democrat Brion Curran represents the other half of the district in the House.

Senate District 37: Janigo vs. Hoag

Republican Sen. Warren Limmer is retiring after serving the Maple Grove area at the Capitol for almost four decades. The district backed former Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential bid in 2024. His departure sets up a contest between Democrat Kirsty Janigo, a member of the Maple Grove City Council, and Republican Brady Hoag, who works in executive search. Party and outside group spending in the race is closing in on $700,000, according to campaign finance records released last week. The bulk of that came from independent expenditure groups Advance Minnesota, Renew Minnesota and Pro Jobs Majority.

House District 37A: McKee vs. Smith

Rep. Kristin Robbins, a Republican who has represented half of the district including Maple Grove, Corcoran and Medina since 2019, is also leaving. In her case, it was after an unsuccessful bid for governor. Republican Tom McKee, the mayor of Corcoran, faces Democrat Darci Smith, a realtor. The high-interest Senate race could drive turnout in the House race as well.

Swingy districts again in focus

House District 18B: Schwartz vs. Hanson

First-term Rep. Erica Schwartz is up against Democrat Leah Hanson, a social worker, in the Mankato-area district. The district has flipped back and forth in party control in recent election cycles. So far, the House DFL Caucus has spent almost $71,000 to tip the seat back into DFL hands. Democrat Nick Frentz represents the broader region in the Minnesota Senate DFLer Luke Frederick represents the other half of the Senate district in the House of Representatives. Republicans didn’t field a candidate against Frederick.

Senate District 41: Seeberger vs. Dippel

Another rematch is staged for the eastern suburbs as DFL Sen. Judy Seeberger again faces now-Rep. Tom Dippel in the district that includes parts of Cottage Grove, Hastings and Lake Elmo. Seeberger won the seat by 321 votes in 2022. Dippel rebounded from the loss by winning a House seat in 2024. Both halves of the district are currently represented by Republicans, Dippel and Rep. Wayne Johnson. Almost $500,000 has been spent in the race so far with the DFL and Senate DFL Caucus putting up more than $92,000 to keep Seeberger in the seat. Republican groups see it as one that could land them in the majority if Dippel wins.

House District 41A and 41B: Johnson vs. Birkeland, Fox vs. Beck

In the House districts within that Senate district, Democrats hope to unseat Johnson and pick up the open seat that Dippel is leaving. In District 41A, Johnson is opposed by Democrat Cole Birkeland, an attorney. Johnson, a former county commissioner, won the seat by 327 votes in 2024 but now has a legislative voting record to defend. The House DFL Caucus has spent almost $80,000 in that race. In District 41B, Democrat Jen Fox, who narrowly lost a 2024 House race, faces Republican William Beck, a lab technician. Cable TV ads are already in heavy circulation, paid for by a DFL-aligned group known as the Minnesota Family Prosperity Project. The House DFL Caucus has already put almost $56,000 into that race.

House District 54A: Tabke vs. Paul

A titanic rematch is set between Democratic Rep. Brad Tabke and Republican Aaron Paul, a police officer. The two saw their 2024 race go deep into overtime and litigation, resulting in a 14-vote Tabke win. Republicans hope the second time is different, with the House Republican Campaign Committee having spent more than $20,000 in the race so far. Meanwhile, the House Democratic Caucus has spent to keep the seat, funneling almost $67,000 into the race. Republican Eric Pratt currently represents Senate District 54 and Ben Bakeberg, also a Republican, represents the other half of the district. Bakeberg is running for the district’s Senate seat against DFLer Rick Olson, a former Michigan state legislator, as Pratt is running for an open 2nd District Congressional seat.

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