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While Minnesota continues to slog through a difficult stretch of COVID-19, the most recent data offers fresh evidence that case counts, hospitalizations and community spread may be ebbing and that the summer-fall wave has peaked.

Known, active cases fell to 18,153 in Wednesday’s numbers, the lowest count in three weeks. The seven-day average of newly reported cases also fell to its lowest point since late September.

The rate of COVID tests coming back positive dipped to 6.3 percent, according to MPR News calculations — higher than the 5 percent officials find concerning but down to its lowest point since Oct. 1.

Perhaps the most hopeful news: Hospitalizations continue to pull back from their recent highs.

Bed counts had topped 1,000 recently, putting 

huge pressure on the state’s short-staffed care systems

, but hospitalizations dipped in reports posted Tuesday and Wednesday. There are 935 people in Minnesota hospitals now with COVID; 240 need intensive care. 

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State public health leaders continue to emphasize that Minnesota’s COVID numbers are still relatively high and the state is not out of the woods yet. They continue to plead with Minnesotans to stay vigilant against the disease and get vaccinated if eligible.

It’s “absolutely” possible the state may get hit with a fifth wave of COVID-19, Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, 

Driven by the highly contagious delta variant, the entire state now shows a high level of COVID-19 transmission, according to the 

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Confirmed cases, though, have declined over the past week in every region and every age group.

The state's death toll stands at 8,489, including 32 deaths newly reported on Wednesday. Deaths typically follow a surge in cases and hospitalizations. In past COVID waves, it’s been the last of the key metrics to improve.

Generally, Minnesota remains better positioned now than during its fall and spring spikes. More than 73 percent of state residents age 12 and older have received at least one vaccination shot, with nearly 70 percent now completely vaccinated.

Breakthrough cases of the disease among fully vaccinated people remain very rare — about 1.4 percent of the more than 3 million Minnesotans who have completed their immunizations.

The struggle continues, however, to get more Minnesotans vaccinated, and wide gaps remain in the vaccination rates among regions and counties.

Unvaccinated Minnesotans are 15 times more likely to be hospitalized, and they are 30 times more likely to die compared to vaccinated people, Minnesota Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm told reporters Wednesday.

The newly released data sets also show that regardless of age, the chances of being hospitalized or dying from COVID are higher for those who are unvaccinated, officials said.

Officials said Wednesday they're starting to think through now how they'll get COVID vaccines to kids ages 5 to 11. They say vaccines will be available in pharmacies, and, likely, in schools, in addition to traditional health care clinics.

Listen to Wednesday’s Minnesota Department of Health briefing:

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The newest numbers offer fresh evidence that case counts, hospitalizations and community spread are ebbing, although deaths remain relatively high. Officials also said Wednesday they’re getting ready to give COVID-19 shots to kids ages 5 to 11.

COVID-19 in MN: Worst of summer-fall surge may be over

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