Minnesota Poll Watch 2024: Heading into election day, Harris has lead in close presidential race, Klobuchar has clear lead in Senate

To help keep our finger on the pulse of this year’s elections, we are tracking poll results, fundraising data and forecasted election outcomes for Minnesota’s U.S. presidential race as well as the races for U.S. Senate and our eight seats in the U.S. House.

We will update this page when new data is released. Note that we vet each poll and only include credible public polls conducted in good faith. We do not include polls released by campaigns or related interest groups.

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Early voting update

As of 10:30 a.m. on Nov. 5 the Minnesota Sectary of State’s Office reports 1,420,287 voters have requested mail-in or absentee ballots — exceeding recent years except in 2020 when COVID precautions were in full swing — and that 1,271,636 have been returned and accepted. As a proportion of the state’s 3,685,666 registered voters, 39 percent have requested mail-in or absentee ballots, including the 35 percent whose votes have already been accepted.

As a proportion of votes cast in Minnesota for top-of-ticket races for Governor and President absentee and mail-in ballots accounted for:

• In 2022: 27 percent of the 2.5 million votes.

• In 2020 (during COVID-19): 58 percent of the 3.3 million votes.

• In 2018: 25 percent of the 2.6 million votes.

According to data from the Minnesota Secretary of State, voter registration is up by two percent over just after the 2020 presidential election. The caveat to this data is that at least one-quarter million additional voters are likely to register on election day, if recent patterns hold. The growth in registered voters is not spread equally around the state, but follows recent changes in general population growth.

U.S. President

The latest polls: Three new polls released this last week prior to the election again show the Harris-Walz Democratic ticket leading the Trump-Vance Republican ticket here in Minnesota:

• A new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, conducted Oct. 24-28, shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Trump by eight percentage points (51 percent to 43 percent).

• The latest MinnPost/Embold Research poll, conducted Oct. 16-22, shows the presidential race in Minnesota statistically tied, with Harris’ three percentage point lead over Trump well within the survey’s margin of error.

• The Cooperative Election Study, an academic research consortium based out of Tufts and Harvard Universities, released their massive biennial pre-election survey which included Minnesota and 12 other states. This survey, conducted Oct. 1-25 by YouGov, found Harris up by ten percentage points among their model of likely voters in Minnesota.

Adding these results to the 16 other polls conducted in Minnesota since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race brings the state’s polling average to a six percentage point advantage for the Harris campaign, with an average of 49 percent of voters supporting the Democratic ticket and 43 percent supporting the Republican ticket.

Looking only at the five polls conducted in October, Harris’ average lead is just over seven percentage points in Minnesota.

Note: Three firms not so far included in our tracking publicly released poll results for Minnesota on Nov. 1, 2 and 4, respectively. Although all three show results similar to other polls, at this time we are not adding these late-breaking polls to our trendline and average, due to either questionable methods, potential bias and/or lack of transparency around the methodology.

Technically, when taken on their own the results of 12 of the 19 polls taken in Minnesota to date are within the margin of error. So, given the closeness of the race and relatively small sample sizes, any of these 12 polls cannot definitively say that Harris is ahead. This is especially the case given that four percent of likely voters remain undecided according to polls taken in September and into October. The error margins also mean, however, that Harris’ current lead could be even larger than reflected in any given poll result.

The consistency of Harris’ lead across all polls, however, and the statistically significant lead in four of the most recent five polls, suggests that she would prevail in the state if the election were held today.

The picture has improved for the Democratic ticket in the state since President Biden withdrew from the race on July 21. Prior to that time polling had generally shown Biden with a slight lead in Minnesota — 3 percentage points on average — but that ultimately the race was too close to call when factoring in the undecided voters and the error margins or credibility intervals that accompanied each poll’s results.

Election forecasts: Leading election forecasters have rated the race for Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes as follows.

• The Economist: Very likely Democrat
  Harris has a 90 percent chance of winning Minnesota as of their Oct. 28 daily update. Nationally their model has the race “extremely close” with Trump winning 54 of 100 election simulations.

• ABC News/538: Likely Democrat
  As of their Oct. 28 daily update Harris has an 81 percent chance of winning in Minnesota. Their forecast for the state was updated from “leans Democrat” on Aug. 23. Nationally 538 has Trump slightly ahead with a 54 percent chance of winning.

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball/UVA Center for Politics: Likely Democrat
  As of Sept. 25. UVA updated the state from “leans Democrat” on Aug. 20. Nationally UVA has the race as too close to call.

• Inside Elections: Leans Democrat
  As of their Aug. 29 update. Nationally IE has the race as too close to call.

• Cook Political Report: Likely Democrat
  Last updated Aug. 27, when they changed from the state from “leans Democrat.” Nationally Cook has the race as too close to call.

• NPR: Likely Democrat
  Updated from “leans” on Aug. 26. Nationally NPR has the race as too close to call.

Background: Minnesota has the nation’s longest streak among all states for favoring a Democrat for president. A Republican has not won the presidential race in Minnesota since 1972, when Republican President Richard Nixon defeated Democratic nominee George McGovern by 5.5 percentage points. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden won the state by a margin of 7.1 percentage points over then-President Donald Trump. In 2016, Trump also lost the state, but only by 1.5 percentage points.

Both the Democrats and Republicans have faced setbacks in this year’s presidential campaign:

• On May 30, Trump was convicted as a felon “as a New York jury found him guilty of all 34 charges in a scheme to illegally influence the 2016 election through a hush money payment to a porn actor.”

• On June 27, then presumptive Democratic nominee President Biden had a weak performance in a televised debate that played directly into fears about his age and continued fitness for office — leading some to call for his withdrawal from the race.

• On July 13, Trump survived an assassination attempt at his outdoor campaign rally in Butler, Penn. Later that week Republicans officially nominated Trump and his newly-announced running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, at the Republican National Convention.

• On July 21, Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. Delegates to the upcoming Democratic National Convention, ultimately responsible for the party’s nomination, quickly united around Harris, both in Minnesota and nationally.

Harris announced that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz would be her vice presidential running mate on Aug. 6. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who was running for president as an independent, announced that he was suspending his candidacy and backing Trump on Aug. 23. Technically Kennedy remains on the ballot in some states, including Minnesota.

Other candidates on Minnesota’s ballot this fall are Chase Oliver and Mike ter Maat (Libertarian Party); Jill Stein and Samson Kpadenou (Green Party); Claudia De la Cruz and Karina Garcia (Socialism and Liberation); Rachele Fruit and Dennis Richter (Socialist Workers Party); Cornel West and Melina Abdullah (Justice for All); Shiva Ayyadurai and Crystal Ellis (Independent). Minnesotans also have the opportunity to write-in candidates of their choosing.

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U.S. Senate

The latest polls: Incumbent Sen. Amy Klobuchar leads Republican challenger Royce White by twelve percentage points, 52 percent to 40 percent, in a poll of Minnesota likely voters conducted Oct. 16-22 by Embold Research on behalf of MinnPost.

The next most recent poll, by Redfield and Wilton Strategies on behalf of The Telegraph, found a narrower race, with Klobuchar ahead by only seven percentage points. Redfield and Wilton’s polling in the state has consistently found the race tighter than have other pollsters; their five polls to date show Klobuchar ahead by an average of seven points, compared to Klobuchar’s 13.5 point average lead in the seven other polls conducted on the race since June.

Redfield and Wilton also find considerably more Minnesota voters undecided about the race. The results of The Telegraph/Redfield and Wilton polls have been surprising given the contrast with the other public polls conducted on the race so far this year. For example, the MPR News | StarTribune | KARE11 Minnesota Poll and a poll by MinnPost and Embold Research, both published in Sept., showed Klobuchar with an 11 percentage point lead.

The results of the Telegraph’s polls regarding Minnesota’s presidential race are similar to the results from other pollsters, and nothing obvious in their stated methodology excludes them from our tracker. We have requested comment on their Senate race findings, but have yet to hear back.

Polls conducted in June and earlier showed Klobuchar ahead of Joe Fraser by 10 to 17 percentage points. Fraser was also running for the seat as a Republican until losing to White in the August primary.

Election forecasts: Leading election forecasters have rated Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race as follows:

• The Economist: Solid Democrat
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update their predictions show Sen. Klobuchar has a 96% chance of winning. Nationally, their model favors Republicans winning control of the Senate, winning 70 in 100 of their model simulations.

• ABC News/538: Solid Democrat
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update (specifically, their model shows Sen. Klobuchar with a 98% chance of winning). Nationally, 538’s favors Republicans to win control of the Senate, winning 89% of their model simulations.

• Inside Elections: Solid Democrat
  As of their Oct. 18 update. Nationally IE forecasts that Republicans will win 2-4 seats, thereby narrowly gaining control of the Senate.

• Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
  As of their Oct. 21 update. Nationally Cook forecasts that 51 seats will be held by Democrats, 49 by Republicans.

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball, UVA Center for Politics: Safe/Solid Democrat
  As of their Oct. 24 update. Nationally UVA forecasts that Republicans will gain control of the Senate, specifically that 51 seats will be held by Republicans, 48 by Democrats and that one seat is too close to call.

Incumbent job approval: Sen. Klobuchar has enjoyed strong job approval ratings from Minnesota voters ever since she assumed office. The most recent KSTP/WDIO/KAAL poll done by Survey USA shows that 54 percent of Minnesota voters approve of Klobuchar’s job performance as senator and 36 percent disapprove.

Background: Incumbent DFL Sen. Amy Klobuchar is seeking reelection to the seat she has occupied since 2007. She won her last election in 2018 by a 24 percentage point margin.

Prior to the Minnesota Republican Convention in mid-May, the GOP’s presumed challenger to Klobuchar was Navy veteran Joe Fraser, who was running with the encouragement of prominent Republicans in Washington. Delegates to the convention, however, endorsed Royce White, a podcaster and former professional basketball player. White also prevailed in the Aug. 13 primary, firming his position as Klobuchar’s challenger in the race.

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Congressional District 1

Background: In 2022 Republican Rep. Brad Finstad prevailed by 11.5 percentage points in an open race against DFL challenger Jeff Ettinger.

This year Finstad faces DFLer Rachel Bohman, who touts herself as a “Rochester native … a former local elected official on the Rochester Township Board … a former Assistant County Attorney … [and] most importantly, a mom.”

While, two other Republicans — Gregory Goetzman and Shawn Tweten — officially filed for the seat, Finstad easily won in the Aug. 13 Republican primary.

This southern Minnesota district — which includes regional centers Albert Lea, Mankato, Rochester (home of Mayo Clinic) and Worthington — has been represented by a Republican since 2019 when the seat was vacated by current Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (DFL).

Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the 1st Congressional District changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a majority Republican district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, but just slightly more favorable for the DFL.

Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.

Election forecasts: Leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD1 as follows:

• ABC News/538: Solid Republican
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update. Nationally 538 has control of the House uncertain (Republicans with a 53% chance of winning).

• The Economist: Solid Republican
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update. Nationally their model shows Democrats slightly ahead, with a 54% chance of winning control.

• Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
  As of their Oct. 25 update. Nationally Cook has control of the House too close to call.

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball/UVA Center for Politics: Safe Republican
  As of their Oct. 24 update. Nationally UVA has control of the House too close to call.

• Inside Elections: Solid Republican 
  As of their Oct. 18 update. Nationally, IE has control of the House as too close to call.

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Congressional District 2

Background: This district stretches south from just outside Minneapolis and St. Paul down to Northfield — including all of Dakota, Le Suer and Scott counties and parts of Rice and Washington — remains a potential swing district.

Incumbent DFL Rep. Angie Craig has held the seat for three terms after flipping the seat in a successful challenge of Republican Jason Lewis in 2018. In 2022, Craig was reelected by a 5 percentage point margin over Republican challenger Tyler Kistner.

Craig’s main challenger this year is Joe Teirab, a former Marine, Harvard Law graduate and former federal prosecutor. Republicans had endorsed Tayler Rahm in the race, but in July Rahm stepped down to serve as senior advisor leading the Trump campaign in Minnesota.

In addition, two other candidates have officially filed to run for the seat; DFLer Marc Ives and Constitutional Conservative Thomas William Bowman. Craig and Teirab easily won their respective party primary elections on Aug. 13.

Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the 2nd Congressional District changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a majority DFL district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, and moving just slightly more favorable for the DFL.

Polling: A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 7-13 among 556 likely voters in the Second District found a close race: Forty-nine percent of voters favored Craig while 41 percent favored Teirab and three percent favored independent Tom Bowman. Craig’s 9 point lead is just beyond the survey’s credibility interval, and seven percent of voters indicated that they were undecided.

Election forecasts: Leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD2 as follows:

• ABC News/538: Likely Democrat
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update. Nationally 538 has control of the House uncertain (Republicans with a 53% chance of winning).

• The Economist: Likely Democrat
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update. Nationally their model shows Democrats slightly ahead, with a 54% chance of winning control.

• Cook Political Report: Leans Democrat
  As of their Oct. 25 update. Nationally Cook has control of the House too close to call.

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball/UVA Center for Politics: Leans Democrat
  As of their Oct. 24 update. Nationally UVA has control of the House too close to call.

• Inside Elections: Likely Democrat 
  As of their Oct. 18 update. Changed from “leans Democratic” in their Sept. 26 update. Nationally, IE has control of the House as too close to call.

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Congressional District 3

Background: DFL Rep. Dean Phillips has held this seat — which includes many of Minneapolis’s northern, western and southern suburbs — since flipping it from Republican Erik Paulsen in 2018. The seat is now open since Phillips backed out to mount a now-discontinued run for president.

Despite the fact that Phillips was reelected by a 19 percentage point margin in 2022, Republicans are hoping to reclaim the district. Tad Jude, a former Democrat who served in the Minnesota Legislature and later as a county commissioner and judge, was endorsed by the district’s GOP in late April. State Sen. Kelly Morrison, a physician, is the DFL’s candidate.

Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the 3rd Congressional District changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a majority DFL district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, and moving just slightly more favorable for the DFL.

Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.

Election forecasts: Leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD3 as follows:

• ABC News/538: Solid Democrat
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update. Nationally 538 has control of the House uncertain (Republicans with a 53% chance of winning).

• The Economist: Solid Democrat
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update. Nationally their model shows Democrats slightly ahead, with a 54% chance of winning control.

• Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
  As of their Oct. 25 update. Nationally Cook has control of the House too close to call.

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball/UVA Center for Politics: Safe Democrat
  As of their Oct. 24 update. Nationally UVA has control of the House too close to call.

• Inside Elections: Solid Democrat  
  As of their Oct. 18 update. Nationally, IE has control of the House as too close to call.

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Congressional District 4

Background: The 4th Congressional District, which includes St. Paul and its suburbs to the north and east, has been held by DFL Rep. Betty McCollum since 2001. That makes her the longest-serving member of the state’s federal delegation. In 2022, she prevailed over Republican challenger May Lor Xiong by 35 percentage points.

Xiong as well as fellow Republican Gene Rechtzigel officially filed to challenge McCollum for the seat, but Xiong won the Republican primary on Aug. 13.

Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the 4rth Congressional District changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a strong DFL district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns.

Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.

Election forecasts: Leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD4 as follows:

• ABC News/538: Solid Democrat
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update. Nationally 538 has control of the House uncertain (Republicans with a 53% chance of winning).

• The Economist: Solid Democrat
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update. Nationally their model shows Democrats slightly ahead, with a 54% chance of winning control.

• Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
  As of their Oct. 25 update. Nationally Cook has control of the House too close to call.

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball/UVA Center for Politics: Safe Democrat
  As of their Oct. 24 update. Nationally UVA has control of the House too close to call.

• Inside Elections: Solid Democrat 
  As of their Oct. 18 update. Nationally, IE has control of the House as too close to call.

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Congressional District 5

Background: Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District, which includes Minneapolis and its immediate western suburbs, has been held by DFL Rep. Ilhan Omar since 2018. She became the first refugee, first Somali-American and, along with Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib, first Muslim woman elected to Congress.

In 2022, Omar prevailed in the general election by 50 percentage points. In this heavily DFL-leaning district she faced a more challenging threat in the 2022 primaries from former Minneapolis city council member Don Samuels, winning by only 2 percentage points.

Samuels challenged Omar in the DFL primaries again in 2024. In addition, two other DFL candidates — Abena A. McKenzie and Nate Schluter — officially filed for the seat. Omar prevailed in the Aug. 13 DFL primary, receiving 56 percent of the vote.

Iraq-born journalist and activist Dalia al-Aqidi is the Republican challenger.

Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the 5th Congressional District changed somewhat in 2022, but remained the state’s strongest DFL district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns.

Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.

Election forecasts: Leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD5 as follows:

• ABC News/538: Solid Democrat
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update. Nationally 538 has control of the House uncertain (Republicans with a 53% chance of winning).

• The Economist: Solid Democrat
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update. Nationally their model shows Democrats slightly ahead, with a 54% chance of winning control.

• Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
  As of their Oct. 25 update. Nationally Cook has control of the House too close to call.

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball/UVA Center for Politics: Safe Democrat
  As of their Oct. 24 update. Nationally UVA has control of the House too close to call.

• Inside Elections: Solid Democrat 
  As of their Oct. 18 update. Nationally, IE has control of the House as too close to call.

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Congressional District 6

Background: Central Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District — which include the Twin Cities’ western and northern exurbs and St. Cloud — has been held by Republican Rep. Tom Emmer since 2015. In 2022, Emmer prevailed over DFL challenger Jeanne Hendricks by 44 percentage points.

Hendricks, “a nurse anesthetist, mom of two adult children, and community activist” won the DFL endorsement in May. In addition, Austin Winkelman, who is currently pursing undergraduate studies in business, formally filed his candidacy as a DFL candidate for the seat. Republican Chris Corey also officially filed as a candidate for the seat.

Emmer and Hendricks each won their respective party primary elections on Aug. 13.

Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the 6th Congressional District changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a majority Republican district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, but just slightly more favorable for the DFL.

Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.

Election forecasts: Leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD6 as follows:

• ABC News/538: Solid Republican
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update. Nationally 538 has control of the House uncertain (Republicans with a 53% chance of winning).

• The Economist: Solid Republican
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update. Nationally their model shows Democrats slightly ahead, with a 54% chance of winning control.

• Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
  As of their Oct. 25 update. Nationally Cook has control of the House too close to call.

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball/UVA Center for Politics: Safe Republican
  As of their Oct. 24 update. Nationally UVA has control of the House too close to call.

• Inside Elections: Solid Republican 
  As of their Oct. 18 update. Nationally, IE has control of the House as too close to call.

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Congressional District 7

Background: Minnesota’s 7th Congressional District, which includes much of the rural western third of the state, was flipped from long-time DFLer Colin Peterson by Republican Rep. Michelle Fischbach in 2020. Even before Fischbach won the seat, the district leaned right, voting for President Trump by a wide margin in 2016.

In 2022 Fischbach was reelected with a 39 percentage point margin. She faces a primary challenge from businessman Stephen Boyd. Neither was endorsed at the spring GOP district convention, but Fischbach won the Aug. 13 primary, receiving nearly two-thirds of the district’s Republican votes.

AJ Peters, a scientist, business owner and educator, is the DFL’s endorsed candidate for the district. Republican Annette Watson has filed fundraising reports as a candidate for the seat but is not listed as an official candidate on Minnesota Secretary of State’s website.

Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the 7th Congressional District changed somewhat in 2022, remaining the state’s strongest Republican district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, and leaning slightly more favorable for the GOP.

Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.

Election forecasts: Leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD7 as follows:

• ABC News/538: Solid Republican
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update. Nationally 538 has control of the House uncertain (Republicans with a 53% chance of winning).

• The Economist: Solid Republican
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update. Nationally their model shows Democrats slightly ahead, with a 54% chance of winning control.

• Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
  As of their Oct. 25 update. Nationally Cook has control of the House too close to call.

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball/UVA Center for Politics: Safe Republican
  As of their Oct. 24 update. Nationally UVA has control of the House too close to call.

• Inside Elections: Solid Republican 
  As of their Oct. 18 update. Nationally, IE has control of the House as too close to call.

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Congressional District 8

Background: Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District extends from northeastern mining towns to include Duluth to the east and the northern Twin Cities exurbs to the south. In 2018, Republican Rep. Pete Stauber successfully flipped this long-time DFL stronghold in a 6 percentage point open-seat victory over DFLer Joe Radinovich.

Stauber has successfully defended the seat in the two elections since then, including a 14-point victory over DFL challenger Jen Schultz in 2022.

Schultz, a former state legislator, is challenging Stauber again this year. In addition, DFLer John Munter and Republican Harry Welty officially filed as candidates for the seat, but on Aug. 13 Stauber and Shultz each easily won their respective party primaries.

Note that along with all districts in the state, the boundaries of the 8th Congressional District changed somewhat in 2022, remaining a majority Republican district according to 2020 presidential voting patterns, but just slightly more favorable for the DFL.

Polling: No public polling to report for the race in this district.

Election forecasts: Leading election forecasters have rated the race in Minnesota’s CD8 as follows:

• ABC News/538: Solid Republican
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update. Nationally 538 has control of the House uncertain (Republicans with a 53% chance of winning).

• The Economist: Solid Republican
  As of their Oct. 27 daily update. Nationally their model shows Democrats slightly ahead, with a 54% chance of winning control.

• Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
  As of their Oct. 25 update. Nationally Cook has control of the House too close to call.

• Sabato’s Crystal Ball/UVA Center for Politics: Safe Republican
  As of their Oct. 24 update. Nationally UVA has control of the House too close to call.

• Inside Elections: Solid Republican 
  As of their Oct. 18 update. Nationally, IE has control of the House as too close to call.

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Fundraising summary

In total, through mid-October candidates on the ballot for Minnesota’s U.S. Senate and U.S. House seats raised a total of nearly $63 million; $22 million in the Senate and over $40 million across the eight House races. Incumbent DFL Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s campaign was the top fundraiser by far, bringing in more than $21 million.

Curious about Minnesota’s state legislative races? For a detailed look at the 2024 election see: https://www.apmresearchlab.org/minnesota-house-and-senate-election-2024

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