Real Minnesota January temperatures this year, but we need snow

It feels like a real January in Minnesota this year, but bare ground across much of Minnesota shows growing seasonal snowfall deficits.

The months of meteorological winter are December through February, so we’re about a week away from the halfway point of meteorological winter.

December finished milder than average. Temperatures in the Twin Cities were 2.7 degrees warmer than normal in December.

So far in January, we’re running 5 degrees colder than average for the month.

Snowfall deficits growing

So far this snowfall season we’ve managed to squeeze out just 8.1 inches of snow in the Twin Cities. The seasonal average snowfall to date in the Twin Cities is now 21.5 inches. So were a good 13 inches behind average to date.

Snowfall deficits are even higher in northern Minnesota. Duluth has picked up 13.8 inches of snow so far this season, but the average to date is 39.6 inches. So the seasonal snowfall deficit in parts of northern Minnesota is now more than 2 feet.

Snow cover across Minnesota on Tuesday shows little snow across most of Minnesota with a range of 3 to 7 inches of snow on the ground across the north.

Outlook: January cold persists

The weather pattern for the next one to two weeks favors continued colder-than-normal temperatures.

Temperatures will moderate late this week, but another arctic air mass will ooze south next week. Temperatures will likely dip below zero again across most of Minnesota by early next week.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s temperature outlook for Jan. 18-31 favors colder-than-normal temperatures overall.

There are chances for a little light snow across Minnesota through the upcoming weekend, but right now forecast models don’t show any big snows for Minnesota for the next week or so.

NOAA’s week Jan 18-31 precipitation outlooks suggest equal chances for above or below-normal snowfall later this month.

As I wrote last fall, our weak La Niña pattern is delivering a more challenging winter compared to last winter. Temperatures in Minnesota are running about 10 degrees colder than last winter so far, but we still need to make up snowfall deficits.

Historical La Niña patterns have favored a more active second half of winter when it comes to snowfall. So it’s still possible we can make up some of the snowfall deficits later this winter.

Stay tuned.